Mainstream Europeans get lift from France
There is relief in mainstream Europe at the success of the centrist in the first round of the French presidential elections, and a wide assumption that he will defeat the farright candidate in a runoff.
LONDON — There was palpable relief in mainstream Europe on Monday at the success of the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the French presidential elections, and a wide assumption that he will defeat the far-right Marine Le Pen in a runoff two weeks from now.
After other recent electoral setbacks for far-right populists, and the farright’s flagging momentum in Germany’s election campaign, some even suggested that the French election could represent the high-water mark of the populist surge that has voted Britain out of the European Union and Donald Trump into power.
If this is a high-water mark, though, the water remains quite high.
For the moment, the parties and personalities that have energized farright populism have not fully crystallized electorally. But the issues that have animated the movements — slow economies, a lack of jobs, immigration — are not going anywhere, and the far right has already moved the political terrain in its direction.
The politics of Europe remain precarious, even if the center — the French-German core of the European Union — appears to be holding, for now.
“There is a sigh of relief,” said Jan Techau, director of the Holbrooke forum at the American Academy in Berlin. “It’s good that in addition to all the other issues on the agenda we don’t also have an extremist French problem.”
After a year of unpredictable elections in Europe and the United States, it would be unwise to discount Le Pen entirely, even if her odds are long. Still, the French result was particularly welcomed by Brussels and Berlin, which have been praying for a French partner willing to challenge both the statist structure of France and the complacency of the European Union.
Macron believes in economic liberalism, a reformed France and a more flexible European Union, while Le Pen threatens to take France out of the bloc.
Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, broke protocol to congratulate Macron and wish him continued success, as did the German foreign minister, Sigmar Gabriel, who said: “He will be a great president.”