Democrats zero in on GOP seat
In Trump age, Culberson can expect waves of candidates in opposition
WASHINGTON — Since he was first elected to Congress in 2000, Houston Republican John Culberson has seen few serious challenges in his affluent U.S. House district, which includes the upscale Galleria shopping center and some of the city’s wealthiest westside neighborhoods.
On Wednesday, two Texas Democrats launched separate campaigns for a seat that’s served as a Republican stronghold since the congressional days of former President George H.W. Bush, who lives in the district. They are not alone. Far ahead of a 2018 midterm election in which Democrats hope to see Donald Trump’s unpredictable presidency weigh down his party’s fortunes in Congress, four other Democrats have filed campaign papers with the Federal Election Commission to run, and one other is expected to soon.
That’s in addition to an independent candidate and one declared Republican primary challenger: Houston businessman David Balat.
Another Republican, immigrant crime activist Maria Espinoza, said she also is considering a primary run against Culberson, following her run last year, when she also served as a major Trump booster.
Altogether, there could be nearly a dozen candidates, including Culberson, contending in a Tex-
as congressional election that’s 18 months away.
The newest entrants are Alex Triantaphyllis, director of immigration and economic opportunity at BakerRipley, a community development nonprofit; and Dr. Jason Westin, a cancer research doctor at MD Anderson.
Both see an opening after Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton carried the district by 1 point last year, putting a lighter shade of red on a reliably Republican district. Culberson, one of only three Texas Republicans in districts Trump lost, appears to be the closest target of opportunity.
“The results of the 2016 election in this district show that the people in this area are concerned about the direction that the president might take us, and I think they will become increasingly concerned that Congressman Culberson has stood with Trump,” Triantaphyllis said.
Westin also sees growing anti-Trump sentiment, particularly around the GOP’s latest Obamacare replacement bill, which Culberson supports.
“There are a lot of smart people that don’t buy into some of the circus tricks that Mr. Trump is doing,” Westin said. “The enthusiasm of the grass-roots movement is exciting.”
Democrats also hope to build on last November’s general election in the 7th Congressional District, when assistant city attorney James Cargas garnered nearly 44 percent of the vote, topping the best Democratic showing of 43 percent by businessman Michael Skelly in 2008.
Both were unusual election years. In 2008, Barack Obama was at the top of a historic Democratic ticket; in 2016, Trump was making history. Both lost in the 7th District. District changing
To Cargas, who will be making his fourth try against Culberson next year, the electoral history tells a story about a district that has become more urban, and perhaps less conservative.
“What’s different this time is not only the anti-Trump wave that’s out there, but Democratic enthusiasm as well,” Cargas said.
He also is banking on Trump fatigue within the district’s traditional, Bushera GOP — the establishment Republicans against whom Trump ran.
“That flavor of Republican is not a member of the tea party,” Cargas said. “Yet the tea party is pretty loud, and that’s who John Culberson and Donald Trump have gotten in bed with.”
If Democrats see the dawning of a post-Trump age, Republicans see more of the same, invoking a familiar GOP piñata, House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi.
“We will watch the Democratic primary with interest,” said Culberson campaign manager Jennifer Naedler. “The congressman will be ready to face Nancy Pelosi’s handpicked liberal nominee.” Political outsiders
But apart from Cargas, who worked in the Clinton White House in the 1990s, the Democratic primary is shaping up to be a contest of political outsiders. Westin and Triantaphyllis have not run for public office before.
Two other new Democratic faces are Debra Kerner, an educator who served on the board of the Harris County Department of Education, and Joshua Butler, an administrator at the University of Texas’ Health Science Center.
Kerner was pictured in a Texas Tribune photo confronting Culberson at a testy town hall in March, which drew an overflow crowd, one of many targeting Republican House members around the nation.
“Change is on the rise in the 7th District,” she said in a news release. “Unfortunately, so is flooding, as well as new concerns about transportation, education and health care.”
Also making her first bid for Congress, though with considerable national political experience, is Laura Moser, a Democratic activist and writer who recently moved back to her native Houston from Washington, D.C., where her husband worked in the Obama administration. She is known in progressive activist circles as a founder of Daily Action, a network that promotes citizen calls to lawmakers.
In addition to the six Democrats who have formally announced or filed federal election papers, Houston trial lawyer Lizzie Pannill Fletcher told the Chronicle on Wednesday that she is “very close to making the decision to step into this race.”
Ronald Kimmons, a former missionary and Reform Party member who works as a writer and translator, rounds out the field.
Some analysts see the crowd gathering to challenge Culberson as a reflection of the district’s changing demographics, its affluence and a measure of grass-roots Democratic rage in the first 100 days of the Trump White House.
Rice University political pollster Robert Stein also sees it as part of the unprecedented residential turnover in Harris County, driven in part by suburban empty-nesters and young professionals moving back to the city, particularly around the medical complexes for which southwest Houston is famous.
His research shows a growing population of discerning, educated voters who, though not necessarily more Democratic, are more susceptible to the sort of ticket-splitting seen in November, when Culberson and Clinton carried the district.
“They’re highly educated, very well-informed, and they’ll split their ticket,” Stein said. “Though they’ll tell you they’re Republicans in general, it doesn’t mean they’ll always vote for the Republican candidate.”
One potential sign that Culberson has recognized these changes was his softening opposition to a planned rail line along Richmond Avenue and his agreement to seek federal transit money.
Like Republicans in other potentially competitive districts, Culberson’s fate could be decided by the quality of the Democrat who emerges from the primary, and the Republicans’ performance in Congress, where party infighting has stalled GOP attempts to repeal Obamacare, enact major tax reform, and pay for Trump’s signature border wall.
“It’s not just Donald Trump,” Stein said. “What’s beginning to happen is that the Republican brand is getting hurt by this … No one is buying that it’s the Democrats’ fault. They’re just lying low and letting the Republicans chew themselves up.” Fundraising expertise
Facing what could be the race of his long career, Culberson sits atop a relatively modest campaign war chest of $132,058, according to his most recent campaign filings. But if history is any guide, he’s a wily tactician who knows how to raise money fast. When needed in past campaigns, he’s been able to raise more than $1 million.
Naedler said the campaign is “rebuilding” after last year’s election, when he fended off Cargas and two Republican primary challengers, Espinoza and James Lloyd, an energy lawyer who worked in the George W. Bush administration.
“The congressman raised significant money in a short amount of time,” Naedler said. “He’s very good at it.”