Tropical storm odds now up to 90 percent

A disturbance swirling over the Caribbean now has a 90 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm, but the National Weather Service says new forecast models give it a wide spread and that “most of the Gulf Coast should be keeping an eye on it.”

The odds of a tropical storm hitting Southeast Texas this week are inching slowly upward as swirling winds pick up in the Caribbean.

A tropical disturbance sparked by a broad band of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean now has a 90 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm, according to the National Hurricane Center. If that system hits Houston, it could mean a torrent of rain and possible flooding.

But as of now, it’s not clear where the stormy weather will hit.

“A lot of the models early on were going towards Florida and or south of Corpus Christi into Mexico,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Wendy Wong. “But some of the newer ones have a wider spread, and it looks like most of the U.S. Gulf Coast should be keeping an eye on this now.”

Over the weekend, the warm seas and swirling winds have combined to toss a disorganized system of showers and thunderstorms at parts of the Caribbean. Over the coming days, that system is expected move slowly northwest over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico where it will likely coalesce into a tropical or subtropical storm.

But will the storm pick up enough wind speed to turn into a hurricane?

“It’s always a possibility,” Wong said. “But given how close it is to the land when it does develop, it may not.”

In the meantime, there could be some patchy showers before the skies clear on Tuesday. If the storm strikes Houston, it will likely come Wednes-

day or Thursday.

Harris County Homeland Security and Emergency Management is ready to go regardless.

“It’s pretty routine for us,” said OHSEM coordinator Mark Sloan. “Most of us have already been prepared for hurricane season. We understand where we’re at because June 1 is the kickoff.”

The hurricane season, which doesn’t end until Nov. 30, is predicted to be rougher than usual, with 11 to 17 named storms likely to strike. The first one — Arlene — formed out in the Atlantic in April but stayed far from land. If the current disturbance morphs into a storm, it will be named Bret.

A hurricane-hunter aircraft mission slated for Sunday was canceled as the storm still lacked a well-defined center, according to the NHC.

As the storm gradually develops, local officials are monitoring developments and staying at the ready.

“We’ll be staffing the Emergency Operations Center and monitoring this tomorrow and all through the week as we figure out what Mother Nature wants to do with the storm,” Sloan said. “To us, this is what we do and why we do it.”