Tropical storm chances increase

If upgraded, ‘Cindy’ expected to spare Houston

A tropical disturbance could make landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border as early as Wednesday afternoon as Tropical Storm Cindy, according to forecasters.

A tropical disturbance could make landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border as early as Wednesday afternoon as Tropical Storm Cindy, according to the National Weather Service.

As of Monday evening, the large system still remained nameless, but meteorologists predicted it had more than an 80 percent chance of turning into a named tropical storm.

The disturbance’s predicted arrival and likely upgrade came shortly after another disturbance in the Atlantic was upgraded to a tropical storm named Bret.

It is still too early to say if Bret, near Venezuela on Monday evening, will effect the Texas coast.

Forecasts as of Monday evening showed the storm likely to become Cindy rumbling north of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. It is expected to make landfall near Houston and then curve east away from the city before turning into a tropical depression. The storm will only slightly brush Houston with strong winds and rainfall.

As the storm moves inland at 9 mph, it is expected to bring elevated tides, an enhanced rip current risk and sustained wind speeds up to 30 mph.

Dan Reilly, with the National Weather Service, said tropical storm conditions will be possible for portions of the upper Texas coast Wednesday and Thursday.

“Exactly where those conditions occur will depend strongly on the track, which remains uncertain,” he said.”

He said locations near and east of the storm’s direct track can expect heavy

“Exactly where those (tropical storm) conditions occur will depend strongly on the track, which remains uncertain.”

Dan Reilly, National Weather Service

rains and gusty winds with relatively little impact west of the track, which includes areas of Houston.

However, weather experts say it is important to realize a tropical cyclone’s effects can span many hundreds of miles from its center.

Gauging impact

So the National Weather Service said that regardless of development and landfall, residents and authorities along the Texas coast should continue monitoring the storm’s progression.

Officials at Harris County Homeland Security and Emergency Management said they are gauging the storm’s potential impact before activating the county’s emergency management response.

With hurricane season now in progress, OHSEM coordinator Mark Sloan said these are the conditions he and his team prepare to handle.

“It’s pretty routine for us,” he said in a recent interview.

He said the operation’s center will continue monitoring the storm throughout the week.

Above-normal season

For the Atlantic, hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Weather service forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season this year.

With that prediction, they anticipate a 70 percent chance of 11 to 17 named storms, of which five to nine could become hurricanes. Two to four of those hurricanes could reach category three or higher.

The 2016 season was the most active since 2012, with 15 named storms, including seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

“Regardless of how many storms develop this year, it only takes one to disrupt our lives,” said FEMA Administrator Robert J. Fenton Jr. in a statement.