Shifting forecasts catch Fla. off guard

For much of last week, the predicted track of Hurricane Irma snaked across Florida from south to north. When it seemed to be headed toward Miami, residents on the Atlantic Coast feared the worst, and many on the west side of the state felt safer by comparison.

By Saturday, however, the storm track shifted to the west, putting Gulf Coast cities such as Naples, Fort Myers and Tampa at risk of the most punishing winds and storm surge.

Floridians who had evacuated from east coast cities to the west were whipsawed, as were those living in the west; Collier County, which includes Naples, did not order its evacuation until Friday.

“We kind of thought ‘Oh well, maybe we’ve got some breathing room,’” said a spokeswoman in Collier County, Kate Albers. “And now it’s bearing down on us.”

The wandering forecast has been a source of consternation for Florida residents. But was this a failure of the models that help officials plan for storms?

Hurricane Irma has confounded even the experts. Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miami and respected blogger on tropical storms and hurricanes, says officials in cities on the west coast of Florida could have been more attentive.

“From my perspective, the east coast and the west coast have been equally in play for the last week,” he said.

But the technical forecasting for the storm, he said, was better than average given the current state of the science. “The models did very well with this,” McNoldy said.

As he explained, “A hundred miles is the difference between the east coast and the west coast — but a hundred miles in a threeday forecast is really good.”