11 pitchers likely to suffice for postseason
With a division title in the Astros’ rearview mirror, their focus for the final 13 regular-season games will center on the race for the best record in the American League. To take back the AL’s top seed, they need to make up 2½ games on the Indians, a daunting task considering the reigning AL champs have lost only once since Aug. 24. (The margin is presently 1½ games, but Cleveland owns the tiebreaker by virtue of its 5-1 record in this year’s season series with the Astros.)
For Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch, these 13 games also afford the last opportunities to evaluate possibilities for the team’s 25man AL Division Series roster. Several roles must still be determined, most notably on the pitching staff. Who will fill out their postseason rotation after Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel?
This question and more will be answered in the season’s final two weeks. What follows is our best guess at a 2017 Astros ALDS roster, if the ALDS were to begin this week.
Pitchers (11)
Among the first questions the Astros’ brass will have to answer is whether to carry 12 or 11 pitchers. The rotation will certainly be narrowed from five to four. But the Astros also could trim their bullpen from its usual eight relievers to seven.
Given the increase in off days in the postseason — the Astros will have three days between their regular-season finale Oct. 1 and Game 1 of the ALDS on Oct. 5 and then a day between games 2 and 3 and games 4 and 5 — the guess here is they go with seven.
In the playoffs, the final roster spot is probably of better use on an extra bench player.
Of the Astros’ relievers, Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Joe Musgrove, Will Harris and Luke Gregerson are locks for the postseason roster. For the purpose of carrying a lefty alone, Francisco Liriano is a safe bet, especially if he continues to pitch like he did Friday in striking out Seattle’s Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager on 11 pitches.
The final bullpen spot or two in this scenario goes to whoever doesn’t make the rotation. The only pitchers certain to start for the Astros in the ALDS are Verlander and Keuchel. That leaves two spots for four pitchers: Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton, Lance McCullers Jr. and Collin McHugh.
Whether McCullers can recover well enough from recent arm fatigue to make a couple starts before October will be telling. Peacock has been the steadiest of the four over the longest period of time, and Hinch’s recent praise of him as a starter suggests a growing likelihood he sticks in the playoff rotation. Ultimately, though, at least one of the starting spots could be dictated by the matchup.
Catchers (3)
Brian McCann will start at least a majority of the games behind the plate and be complemented by Evan Gattis. But the Astros will strongly consider carrying Juan Centeno or Max Stassi as a third catcher for lategame defensive purposes.
Coming into Monday, the Astros were tied for fifth worst in the majors in stolen bases allowed (92). They’ve thrown out a lowly 13 attempting base stealers all season, eight fewer than the team with the next-worst total. McCann, their primary catcher, has thrown out only seven of 55. In a postseason environment especially, opponents will try to exploit this weakness.
The degree to which Stassi or Centeno represents a significant lategame upgrade in this area is uncertain, however. In limited playing time with the Astros, Centeno has caught only one of 11 base stealers. He caught 14 of 52 for Class AAA Fresno. Stassi has thrown out one of three for the Astros and nabbed 10 of 63 at Class AAA.
Infielders (5)
The Astros’ infield is set with the AL MVP frontrunner at second base in Jose Altuve, an All-Star at shortstop in Carlos Correa, a budding star at third base in Alex Bregman, a wellabove-average producer at first base in Yuli Gurriel,
and the ultra valuable Marwin Gonzalez, who’s an option at every infield position and also in left field.
Outfielders (6)
Behind All-Star George Springer, Josh Reddick, Cameron Maybin and Carlos Beltran (yes, for this exercise should carry Derek Fisher as a potential late-game pinch runner.
Tony Kemp, who qualifies as an outfielder or infielder, could also make the roster in a pinch-running role in the wake of Jake Marisnick’s thumb injury.
Keep in mind that in a perfect world, the Astros would pinch-run late in playoff games for McCann, Beltran, Gattis and maybe even Gurriel, a dynamic that makes carrying the extra position player more valuable than the extra bullpen arm in a postseason setting. This is where the loss of the versatile Marisnick hurts most.