Texas and OPEC sure are beginning to look a lot alike
Texas is finding itself more like a member of OPEC every day, facing many of the same challenges.
Operators in the Permian Basin pumped 2.4 million barrels of oil a day in 2016, more than nine of the 14 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to the Texas Oil and Gas Association. That number will be higher this year and even higher in 2018, according to ESAI Energy, an oil and gas consulting firm.
Oil from the Permian Basin’s shale rock is among the cheapest in the world to extract, according to industry analysts. New capital investments in the Permian is expected to rise from $8 billion in 2016 to over $40 billion in 2021 as Texas pumps more and more oil, according to the Texas Oil and Gas Association.
Those numbers have industry cheerleaders excited because expending capital creates jobs, not only on drilling rigs, but also back in Houston where geologists and engineers analyze the rock and design the wells. After almost three years of layoffs and
Hurricane Harvey, any rehiring will be welcome news.
Because if we’re being honest, oil and gas is the only thing that sets the Texas economy apart from the rest of the nation. Like an OPEC country, Texas thrives when prices surge, demand for our natural resources grows, and cash starts pouring in for a product that was deposited under our land eons ago.
U.S. crude exports rose 59,000 barrels a day in July to just under a million barrels a day, according to S&P Global Platts, an energy data firm. Three years ago we exported almost nothing.
Liquefied natural gas sales are also climbing, with additional export facilities coming online so fast that the Industrial Energy Consumers of America have asked Energy Secretary Rick Perry to stop approving new liquefaction plants for fear that U.S. natural gas prices might rise.
Exporting crude and natural gas, though, is part of President Donald Trump’s campaign promise of establishing global energy dominance.
There’s only one little problem: Where is the money for all of this drilling and exporting going to come from?
Houston oil and gas genius George Mitchell hydraulically fractured shale rock for natural gas because prices were more than $10 for a million British thermal units. The price has remained below $3 for years.
Exploration and production companies started fracking for oil because prices were above $100 a barrel. The price has been averaging less than half that for years. Most analysts believe that shale oil is only profitable above $50 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate.
Oil companies are spending big in the Permian Basin because they expect higher prices. Investors disagree.
“Despite a 12 percent decline in crude oil prices from their December 2016 highs, the 43 top U.S. exploration and production companies we’ve been tracking are largely maintaining their aggressive 2017 drilling and completion capital spending plans,” an analyst note from RBN Energy said. In all, the companies plan to spend 40 percent more on new wells in 2017 than they did in 2016.
Yet the stock value of companies on the S&P exploration and production company index is down 29 percent since late 2016. Assets tied to shale producers, particularly in the Permian Basin, have fallen, according to Bloomberg News. That’s because after looking at oil company plans, investors expect another glut of oil and little return on investment. They know oil executives have poor selfregulation skills.
Most Houstonians remember the second half of 2014, when oil prices first dropped and oil executives promised a V-shaped recovery. They said low prices would last no more than six months.
When prices just kept going lower, the same experts said we would have a U-shaped recovery. The price may have dropped quickly, and stayed low for a while, but it would pop back up, they promised.
“We’re likely looking at an L curve with little chance of a big price recovery,” a certain Chronicle business columnist wrote on March 12, 2015. Lowerfor-longer remains my expectation today.
There is simply too much production capacity being held back. OPEC and its allies took 1.5 million barrels a day off the market, and they can turn that back on quickly.
Permian companies have thousands of drilled, uncompleted wells where they are storing crude in the underground reservoirs. The minute the price peeks above their $50 dollar hedging contracts, the owners will turn those wells on.
Texas oil companies, like OPEC, may be throttling production to avoid lower prices, but also like OPEC, Texas companies will compete for market share by offering the best prices.
That’s not a recipe for another boom, which only happens when there is a shortage. We’d best temper our expectations for an oil and gas revival, and like OPEC members, look for other ways to stoke our economy.