Judge falling back to earth in postseason
Top-tier talent exposing rookie right fielder’s reliance on pitching mistakes in regular season
NEW YORK — The meteoric rise of Yankees rookie right fielder Aaron Judge, whose power numbers made him a rival to Astros second baseman Jose Altuve for the American League Most Valuable Player, has sputtered and crashed in the postseason.
He homered and drove in two runs against the Twins in the wild-card game. But then, the Indians baffled him in the American League Division Series. And now, the Astros, ahead 2-0 in the Championship Series, have grounded Judge like gravity.
He has two hits in his last 27 atbats. He struck out 19 times in the playoffs. Alfonso Soriano holds the team record with 26 postseason strikeouts.
Judge, baseball’s tallest hitter at 6-7, likely always will amass large walk and strikeout totals because his height expands the strike zone. Lately, he is making solid contact with his bat about as often as he would with a feather.
“Pitchers are making really good pitches on him,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “They know they have to be careful, and they’re being careful — that’s why you’re seeing some walks in there, too.”
But crediting elite playoff pitching or deeming this stretch a slump conceals the truth about Judge’s flawed approach that is easier to see in October.
His frequent displays of power — a homer that rocketed 495 feet, another that sped 121 mph, and 52 in all, which broke Mark McGwire’s single-season rookie record — distracted spectators from his reliance on mistake pitches.
Judge ranked eighth in the majors with 79 extra-base hits, but of that group, Judge had the highest portion, at 27 percent, come on meatballs in the middle of the plate.
Ups and downs
The holes in Judge’s swing gaped during a two-month rut after the All-Star Break. He batted .131 in a stretch of 228 at-bats.
He quieted critics by hitting .321 with seven homers in his final 18 games of the season. Even that surge comes with a caveat, however. The Yankees played the Orioles, Twins, Royals and Rangers, a foursome that ranks No. 2 through 5 for the worst opposing batting average in the AL. They also faced the Blue Jays, whom Judge battered all season for a 1.637 OPS.
Judge built his legend with spectacles, but there was a clear way to chop down the giant.
Of the 201 pitches to Judge in
the postseason, 57 percent have been low-and-away and 42 percent have veered out of the zone in that direction. Pitches up and in and sliders, which limited Judge to a .162 average in the regular season, challenge him.
Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander understood this data before their slider-heavy starts in Games 1 and 2.
On Friday, Keuchel shifted from sinkers to sliders in three rounds with Judge. Exclusively throwing sinkers led to a walk and then concentrating a mix of the two pitches low and away induced a strikeout.
Judge showed his weakness and strength in the third plate appearance. He worked the count to 3-2 on five consecutive sliders. Keuchel would not waver from the strategy. He misfired his sixth slider, and as it swept into the center
of the zone, Judge ripped it to the outfield for a single.
Judge did not get to bask in his triumph for long. Astros left fielder Marwin Gonzalez scooped the ball and threw out Greg Bird at home to end the inning.
“You make mistake pitches in the playoffs, they’re magnified,” Keuchel said. “I am cautious about certain situations going into it with Judge up.”
Bounceback to come?
Judge took his single as a sign that his pursuit of the easiest pitches to hit would prove successful in the series, even if his pitch recognition continues to fail him.
“I just want to make sure I’m hitting the mistakes,” Judge said. “I don’t want to go after his pitch. I don’t want to go down, below the zone or off the plate. I want to try to get a pitch up in the zone I can do damage on.”
Verlander was more unforgiving in Judge’s four at-bats on Saturday. He struck out Judge with sliders that dove outside and jammed him twice with high-and-inside fastballs that surpassed 96 mph.
“The pitches that you’re going to swing at predominantly aren’t pitches that are down and away on the black at the knees or a little bit below the knees,” Girardi said of the Astros’ approach. “We have not seen a lot of mistakes on him, and they understand what happens.”
That they do. Keuchel and Verlander minimized Judge and most of his teammates with precise performances. But, the Yankees will begin Game 3 on Monday in a familiar position. In the ALDS, they lost two games in Cleveland before mounting three consecutive wins with sparse but clutch hits.
The Astros will start Charlie Morton on Monday and Brad Peacock or Lance McCullers Jr. in Game 4 on Tuesday. Unlike the Astros’ dual aces, the three are nearly unproved in the postseason and prone to make mistakes.
“For people to say he was exposed or whatnot, I don’t believe in that,” Keuchel said. “I think he’s a tremendous talent, and one swing can change the course of the game.”