Gauging TV audience

Without team from East Coast (read Yankees), Fall Classic might not overwhelm in ratings

Let’s talk World Series audience ratings.

First, though, please don’t berate the messenger.

Just as Astros-White Sox in 2005 was the lowest-rated World Series at the time, as measured by the Nielsen Co., there’s a teensy chance Astros-Dodgers will be at or near the bottom this time.

Don’t take it personally. The absence of a Right Coast team in the series does not bode well for viewership in the Eastern time zone. That’s why Fox executives likely were silently rooting for YankeesDodgers, which likely could have rated in double digits, as the Cubs’ landmark win last year did.

Yankees versus Dodgers, after all, reeks of history, with 11 meetings going back to 1941. Astros-Dodgers has some history, at least for local fans, dating to the Astros’ National League origins but with no postseason meetings absent the 1981 strike year Division Series.

So how low will it go? The lowest-rated World Series was in 2012, when the Giants’ four-game sweep of the Tigers — also a Left Coast team vs. a more-or-less Middle America squad — rated 7.6 with an average audience of 12.6 million.

For comparison purposes, the fourgame Astros-White Sox series rated 11.1 with 17.1 million viewers in 2005, and the seven-game Cubs-Indians series last year rated 12.9 and 22.8 million, thanks in large part to a blockbuster 21.8 with 40 million viewers for Game 7.

Length of series is always going to be a determining factor, as last year demonstrated, but Astros-Dodgers has a fairly solid chance of avoiding the cellar. Cardinals-Rangers in 2011 averaged 10.6 and 16.5 million viewers for a seven-game series, and a seven-game Astros-Dodgers series could exceed that.

A shorter series could reach 8.0, which would be about on par with the 2013-15 series results.

The Dodgers, playing in their first World Series since 1988, have more cachet than the Giants, so that’s a plus. The Astros, like the Tigers, have Justin Verlander, plus a squad that picked up some name recognition from playing the Yankees plus the ongoing Hurricane Harvey recovery storyline, and that could pick up some Eastern viewers.

As for local consumption, the 2005 World Series averaged a 41.2 Nielsen rating and 58 share on KRIV (Channel 26). That will be a tough number to beat; Game 7 of the ALCS was on FS1, which is available in about 80 percent of the market, and rated 21.8, so don’t expect local ratings in Houston to make it past the mid-30s, if that.

Little benefit to regional networks

It’s mildly ironic that the World Series features teams that have succeeded on the field while also being involved in two of the more dysfunctional regional sports network brouhahas.

Houston residents are familiar with the Comcast SportsNet Houston/Root Sports/AT&T SportsNet saga, but L.A. has its own quagmire with the inability of SportsNet LA, started by Time Warner Cable and now owned by Charter, to get distribution on Comcast, DirecTV or AT&T U-verse.

David Carter, executive director of the Sports Business Institute at USC, said even a World Series appearance isn’t likely to break the distribution logjam for the Dodgers channel.

“We have turned a small corner each of the last four years, and when you turn a corner four times, guess what: You’re back where you started,” Carter said.

“Nothing has happened here in terms of moving people off the dime, and that included Vin Scully’s last season with the Dodgers (in 2016).

People will wring their hands and shout this week (about SportsNet LA carriage issues), but then the World Series will end, and everybody will be watching the Lakers.”

Similarly, don’t expect any impact in Houston on getting Dish Network or Suddenlink to pick up AT&T SportsNet Southwest, even with the Astros’ success. Both companies are so intent on remaining as low-cost alternatives that they’re too skittish to pay the $4.50 per month subscription fee in the Houston area.

But at least one thing can be said for SportsNet LA: At least its customers will have access to Dodgers pregame and postgame interview and highlights shows during the World Series.

And what of AT&T SportsNet and Astros coverage on World Series game nights? Nada. Zip. Bupkis. Embarrassing. And yes, typical.

Where to watch and listen

Astros-Dodgers will air on KRIV (Channel 26) in Houston for all games. Pregame coverage for Game 1 begins at 6 p.m. Tuesday on FS1 and moves to Fox stations, including Channel 26, at 6:30 p.m.

It’s the same telecast crew as for the ALCS: Kevin Burkhardt, Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Keith Hernandez and Frank Thomas on the pregame show; Joe Buck and John Smoltz on the games, with Ken Rosenthal and Tom Verducci reporting from the field.

Astros radio with Robert Ford and Steve Sparks will air, as usual, on KBME (790 AM). Dan Shulman and Aaron Boone will have the national radio broadcast on ESPN Radio with reporters Tim Kurkjian and Buster Olney.

ESPN will have “Baseball Tonight” at 3:30 and 6 p.m. Tuesday and on game nights (Saturday excluded) with Karl Ravech, Jessica Mendoza, Eduardo Perez, David Ross, Mark Texeira and Tim Kurkjian, mostly airing on ESPN2. Adnan Vick will host 11 p.m. shows after Games 2, 4, 5 and 6 (if necessary).

ESPN2 also has MLB Network’s “Intentional Talk” with Chris Rose and Kevin Millar at 3 p.m. Thursday and Monday, the two travel days.

MLB Network will have 30 hours of coverage, beginning at 2 p.m. on game days, in addition to the “High Heat with Christopher Russo” and “Intentional Talk” shows.

On-site hosts include Bob Costas, Greg Amsinger, Brian Kenny, Chris Rose and Russo, and analysts include Sean Casey, Dan Plesac, Harold Reynolds, Mark DeRosa, Al Leiter, Mike Lowell and Kevin Millar.

MLB Network reporters include Peter Gammons, who is covering the World Series for the 45th time, and University of Houston graduate Robert Flores. Programming is available at MLBNetwork. com for authenticated subscribers.

Russo’s “Mad Dog Unleashed” radio show on SiriusXM also will air from Minute Maid Park before Game 3 on Friday and Sunday’s Game 5, if necessary. The Friday show airs at 3 p.m. and the Sunday program at 3:30 p.m.

SiriusXM’s MLB Network Radio channel also will broadcast from the ballpark before Games 3, 4 and 5 in Houston. Casey Stern hosts with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette at 4 p.m. before each game.

Four DVRs, no waiting

Playoff telecasts are averaging 4.8 million viewers per game, MLB’s best entering the World Series since a 4.9 million average in 2011. … Vin Scully tells Tom Hoffarth of the Los Angeles Daily News that he will not be part of any World Series broadcast despite the Dodgers’ presence. “I honestly don’t feel I belong there, and I would not want anyone to think I was eager for a spotlight,” Scully told Hoffarth in an email. … Meanwhile, Astros radio announcer Steve Sparks was again unfiltered during the team’s clubhouse celebration following its ALCS-clinching win over the Yankees. Among his more probing questions, posed to designated hitter/catcher Evan Gattis: “You’ve got champagne in your beard. Can I lick that?”

Sparks also spoke with Dallas Keuchel, who said he plans to shave his beard if the Astros win the World Series.

david.barron@chron.com twitter.com/dfbarron