Primary focus will be on Texas
Nation’s earliest elections could test trends, keep nation enthralled
AUSTIN — Next up: Texas.
Until now, voters in Virginia, New Jersey and Alabama have had all the fun with big elections that gripped the nation, altered the U.S. Senate and provided an appetizer for what many expect to be a tumultuous 2018 election cycle nationwide. But now it’s the Lone Star State’s turn to join the mix with the earliest primary elections in the nation — and with plenty at stake.
On March 6, Texas voters will decide who will carry the Democratic party’s mantle into the battle for governor and a slew of other statewide offices in the nation’s biggest GOP stronghold, remake the state’s congressional delegation with eight new members likely determined during the primary in heavily gerrymandered districts, and test U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in his first re-election since his stunning victory in 2012. Early voting begins in just more than six weeks.
What the turnout looks like in the Texas primary will tell a lot about what lies ahead for Republicans and Democrats in 2018, said Cal Jillson, political science professor at Southern Methodist University. If there is big minority voter turnout — traditionally low in gubernatorial cycles in Texas — it could signal that the higher-than-expected minority turnout in last month’s Alabama Senate race is a developing trendline nationally that could have lasting impact. Similarly, what turnout looks like for suburban white women who helped elect Donald Trump in 2016 will tell Republicans a lot. If they come out in the GOP primaries, they could again help Republicans comfortably carry the day.
‘Everything is happening now’
But there’s not much time for any of it. Early voting starts Feb. 20 — six weeks from Tuesday. And for thousands of Texans in the military and overseas, they could be filling out ballots in as little as two weeks. Military and overseas ballots must be mailed out by Jan. 20 according to the Texas Secretary of State’s office.
In 30 of the nation’s 50 states, primaries are from June to September. Texas is one of only two states that have March primaries. Illinois holds its primaries March 20.
“It makes it difficult for voters,” Jillson said. “You’ve just come out of the holidays, and you look up and you are just a few months before Election Day.”
That has campaign teams in Texas working at warp speed trying to gain name identification at a time many Texans are still taking down Christmas decorations. In the Republican race for the 2nd Congressional District in Houston, Rick Walker already has billboards up, Kathaleen Wall brought in country music star Lee Greenwood to boost her campaign kickoff event and social media sites, and David Balat estimates he’s knocked on 500 doors in the district already.
“Everything is happening now,” said Donna Stanart, campaign manager for Balat, one of
nine Republicans running in a congressional district that runs from west Houston and wraps around to Atascocita and Humble in northeast Harris County.
Adding to the pressure is the fact that in Republican primary races in Harris County, nearly half the votes will be cast during early voting. That gives candidates just seven weeks to find a way to stand out.
Jillson said the early primary benefits incumbents because they are typically better known and have more money. But in crowded fields with mostly unknown candidates, the next nine weeks provide an exercise in branding and building name recognition through any means possible.
“Somehow you have to embed your name in peoples’ minds,” Jillson said.
March 6 isn’t likely to be the end of the primary for many races.
In contests with a lot of candidates and no clear favorite, a runoff election becomes increasingly likely. If no candidate gets above 50 percent, a runoff is set for May 22.
Houston in the thick of it
Perhaps the most notable race is for governor. Texas has 10 Democrats running to determine who will take on Gov. Greg Abbott, who himself faces minor opposition from two Republicans in the GOP primary. Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez and Andrew White, the son of former Gov. Mark White, are two of the best known names in the race for Democrats.
And Houston is in the middle of what will be big changes coming in Congress for Texas.
Statewide, eight congressional races are open, meaning there is no incumbent seeking re-election, after an usually high amount
of retirements. Texas has not lost more than eight sitting congressman in one year since 1996, when nine incumbents retired or were defeated for re-election. In Houston, longtime incumbent Reps. Gene Green, D-Houston, and Ted Poe, R-Atascocita, both announced their retirements. Nine Republicans and five Democrats are running to replace Poe. Seven Democrats and four Republicans are running to replace Green.
One of the most watched races in Texas will be for the U.S. Senate in which Cruz, finishing his first term, faces four lesserknown Republicans. On the Democratic side, El Paso Democrat Beto O’Rourke first needs to get through a primary with two other Democrats to get to the highly anticipated battle with Cruz.
“It makes it difficult for voters. You’ve just come out of the holidays, and you look up and you are just a few months before Election Day.”
Cal Jillson, political science professor at Southern Methodist University