Primary turnout shows a blue wave aimed at Texas

One of the biggest political questions in Texas this year was how the so-called blue wave that seemed to be surging across the country since the election of President Donald Trump would fair in the Lone Star State. Would it crash on the red seawall, or would it lead to overwhelming change in our politics?

If the first week of early voting is any indication, that blue wave is surging. Don’t believe me? Look at the numbers. Through the first week, Democrats have had record turnout in every major county in the state.

Here in Harris County, the Democratic turnout has been nothing short of remarkable. In 2014, 8,399 Democrats turned out during the first six days of early voting. In the heavily contested 2016 Democratic Primary, 23,361 turned out. This election has seen just under 25,000 voters — an unprecedented record for Texas Democrats.

Based on previous elections, we know that increased Democratic participation in the primaries means greater Democratic turnout in the general election. The same isn’t true for Republican voters, who have a record of steady turnout regardless of primary participation.

So where is this Democratic wave coming from?

Surges in early voting can usually be attributed to interest among heavily partisan voters, but the turnout this cycle points to an interesting trend. More than half the voters who have cast ballots in the Democratic primary in Harris County have little to no history of voting in other Democratic primaries. That’s not to say these voters are new to the process. Rather, they’re just voters who skip the primary and turn out in the general election.

More than 70 percent of people who cast ballots in the primary have voted in the last three general elections, with 97 percent having voted in at least one of the last three general elections. It is unclear whether these are independents, disaffected Republicans voting in the Democratic primary or merely Democratic-leaning voters, but their impact this cycle looks to be significant. Beyond voter turnout, there has also been a spike in other indicators of high Democratic voter intensity. One of the best gauges of that metric is the number of requests for mail ballots, often a sign of organizational strength and a heightened desire to vote.

Democrats in 2014 had 12,722 requested mail ballots — in 2018 they had more than 31,000. These numbers are simply off the charts. Credit here probably falls with Harris County Democratic Party Chair Lillie Schechter, whose focus on mail ballots has created a result without any precedent in contemporary Houston politics.

What makes the turnout even more remarkable is the lack of heavily contested statewide races.The big driver has been the record number of congressional races and the massive shadow of Trump.

With open seats in congressional districts across the state, contests have been the primary drivers for turnout. In Harris County alone, three congressional races have drawn myriad candidates. The Democratic primary for the 7th Congressional district, currently held by Republican Rep. John Culberson, has elicited the most attention.

Beyond that, however, the real driver appears to be the increased polarization of the electorate as it relates to Trump. Traditionally, the party out of the White House gains seats in midterm.

This year’s early vote and projected primary turnouts seem to point to a much closer and heavily contested general election than many would have thought just months ago. Will it be enough to transform Texas into a two-party state? Only time will tell. For now, we are increasingly looking at an unpredictable election season.