AG COMMISSIONER
Voters easily topple numbers from past midterm elections
Sid Miller, the cowboy who got roped into a few controversies, led comfortably.
Houston-area voters showed up in droves for the Democratic primary, building on huge early voting numbers and easily topping turnout from previous midterm election cycles.
Political observers said increased enthusiasm among Democratic voters following President Donald Trump’s 2016 election, combined with an abnormally crowded field of gubernatorial and congressional candidates, likely caused the spike in voter turnout. Democrats have been buoyed by a series of national election victories since Trump’s victory, though the true test of liberal enthusiasm will come in November’s midterm general elections, where Republicans are in danger of losing a few seats in Congress.
In Harris County, about 90,000 residents voted early or absentee in the Democratic primary, with tens of thousands of in-person votes expected. With about a quarter of votes counted Tuesday night, Harris County Democratic primary votes surged past the record of 101,263 cast in the 2010 primary.
In Fort Bend and Montgomery counties, voters still cast far more ballots in the Republican primary, but Democratic voters are projected to narrow the margin by several percentage points. Statewide totals weren’t available as of press time.
Statewide, Democratic primary turnout will likely exceed recent off-year elections, while Republican turnout is projected to hold relatively steady. In 2010 and 2014, about 10 percent of registered voters cast Republican ballots and 5 percent voted for Democrats.
The record-breaking turnout numbers were widely expected after early voting totals trickled in from Texas’ largest counties. Some Republican leaders have heralded the Democratic turnout as a harbinger for potential losses in November, while others have been less alarmed by results to date.
“There are at least five or six congressional district races where there were four-plus candidates running, and typically when you see that, it’s going to drive voter turnout up,” said Derek Ryan, an Austin-based Republican political consultant. “And, obviously, the national political scene is helping drive some turnout as well with the antiTrump movement.”
Harris County congressional primaries typically have drawn few candidates and relatively low voter participation. This year, five races drew five or more candidates, leading to higher turnout. Voters cast 20,845 ballots in those five races in 2014, compared to 48,080 this year in early and absentee balloting alone.
The increase was notable in the race for Texas’ 7th Congressional District, where Democrats hope to unseat nine-term Republican John Culberson. Democrats fielded one candidate in the 2016 primary, John Cargas, who garnered 24,190 primary votes and ultimately lost by 13 points to Culberson. This year, with Culberson seen as more vulnerable, seven Democratic candidates jumped into the race, collecting nearly 17,000 early and absentee votes.
“A lot of people are very excited about those candidates, along with several other races around town,” said Rob Icsezen, a lawyer who advises the Harris County Democratic Party. “I think we’ve got a strong wave of Democrats, mixed with an extremely motived anti-Trump wave.”
Increases in Democratic turnout extended to the Republican strongholds of Fort Bend and Montgomery counties. In the past three midterm primary cycles, roughly 75 percent of Fort Bend County primary voters cast ballots in Republican races. This year, the Republican share of votes likely will be closer to 60 percent, based on early and absentee votes.
John Oldham, elections administrator in Fort Bend County, said early returns showed Republicans had a slight increase in total votes cast from prior years, but Democratic turnout exceeded any total in recent history.
In Montgomery County, Republican primary voters typically have cast about 90 to 95 percent of votes, though that total will likely be in the 80s this year.
Ryan said his analysis of early voter data, based on information provided by nearly 50 counties, shows nearly one-quarter of Democratic primary voters had not cast ballots in the past four primary elections — a potential indicator of Democratic enthusiasm. Another 6 percent of Democratic primary voters crossed party lines after recently casting ballots in the Republican primary.
Democratic turnout should give Republicans pause, Ryan said. Still, he noted Republicans maintain a solid electoral edge over Democrats — particularly in statewide races, such as governor and U.S. Senate — and many of the first-time Democratic primary voters have been casting ballots in general elections.
“I don’t think Texas is turning blue this election cycle,” Ryan said. “You may see a percentage or two drop for the statewide races on the Republican side versus what you’ve seen in the past. But I could see those numbers maybe impacting some congressional races, some legislative races and certainly down-ballot.”