Ryan’s exit sets off scramble in GOP
Lone Star Republicans could grab upper-level posts
WASHINGTON — The sudden exit of U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan set off a scramble for the top GOP leadership posts Wednesday, a shake-up that could create opportunities for a number of ranking Texas Republicans.
Among them are House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady of The Woodlands, who has been a close ideological ally of Ryan and the speaker’s wing man on tax cuts and trade.
Brady, in his 11th term, is not generally considered a candidate to replace Ryan. But a potential contest between House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy and GOP Whip Steve Scalise could present the well-liked Texan with a chance to slip into the party’s third-ranking leadership spot.
A few other powerful Republican committee chairmen from Texas’ influential delegation also
“The fact that you’ve got a captain of the ship bailing out midway through the sinking of the ship is not a good sign.” Brandon Rottinghaus, UH political scientist
are seen as possible contenders for higher leadership positions. They include the Houston region’s Michael McCaul, chairman of the Homeland Security Committee; Dallas’ Pete Sessions, who chairs the Rules Committee; and Midland’s Mike Conaway, chairman of the Agriculture Committee and the head of the House committee investigating Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.
McCaul, a frequent TV news show guest, has shown ambition in toying with a possible Senate run.
Conaway is considered more comfortable spearheading this year’s major multi-year farm bill. Sessions, for the time being, faces a spirited reelection challenge in a district that went for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
At least two other committee chairs from Texas — Lamar Smith of San Antonio and Jeb Hensarling of Dallas — are set to retire this year. One Lone Star leader who is not retiring is Armed Services Committee Chairman Mac Thornberry of Amarillo, though he has gained little national profile.
Freedom Caucus efforts
While Brady is the closest to Ryan, he is seen more as a policy driver than a political player.
“If you’re looking for a legislative leader, he’s a good option,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston. “If you’re looking for a political leader, he’s not your best option.”
Amid the tumult, Ryan’s departure also could be bad news for Brady and others close to the GOP leadership ranks if it signals the ascendancy of the party’s hard-right Freedom Caucus, a bloc of three dozen tea party-inspired lawmakers who long have been clamoring for more influence in Republican leadership.
While Brady symbolizes the business establishment wing of the GOP, the handful of Texans in the Freedom Caucus are part of a group that has been able to exert more rightward pressure on Ryan and his predecessor, former Speaker John Boehner.
In the Houston region, those with the strongest ties to the Freedom Caucus include Randy Weber of Friendswood, Brian Babin of Woodville, and Louie Gohmert of Tyler. But other than Gohmert, who appears frequently as an outspoken conservative on Fox News, none of those Texans have much clout in the group.
“Texas certainly has its share of folks in the Freedom Caucus, but they’re not the leaders of the Freedom Caucus,” said University of Texas political scholar Sean Theriault.
The uncertainty surrounding the coming leadership struggle could confer advantages or disadvantages to those already clinging to the rungs of power, depending on who wins. As for the current crop of Texans running major committees, Theriault said, “all of them could be more powerful with Ryan around than without Ryan around.”
Texas U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, said that no matter who wins the battle to succeed Ryan, the basic fault lines in the House will remain the same.
“I don’t think this really changes the House as an organic whole,” he said. “You still have the various factions and interest groups, people with different places on the ideological spectrum. It’s still going to be, for his successor, a challenging balancing act between sort of the ‘Main Street Republicans’ and the Freedom Caucus and everything in-between.”
Democrats, meanwhile, sense blood in Ryan’s departure, which comes in the midst of a difficult midterm election year for Republicans who will be tied to an embattled President Donald Trump.
“The fact that you’ve got a captain of the ship bailing out midway through the sinking of the ship is not a good sign,” Rottinghaus said. “Even if it’s not a harbinger of losses in the House, the optics make it look so much worse.”
Election impact?
Views were split on what the move might — and might not — mean for November’s mid-term elections that will decide which party rules the House for the final two years of Trump’s term. Many analysts said Ryan made his move to avoid being swept out as speaker if a “blue wave” does rise and give Democrats control, but he rejected that notion.
There are several potentially endangered Texas Republicans whose fate could be influenced by a national voting wave favoring Democrats. Besides Sessions, Houston’s John Culberson and San Antonio’s Will Hurd have been targeted by Democrats because they represent districts carried by Clinton. Democrats believe all three could are vulnerable.
“The blue wave is rising while the Trump Republican Party is in full chaos,” said Texas Democratic Party Chair Gilberto Hinojosa. “The Republican Speaker of the House leaving Congress shows the rats are jumping off the sinking ship.”
Brady, Cornyn and other prominent Republicans say there is nothing more to read into Ryan’s departure besides his stated desire to now pursue “new priorities” in his life: his family.
“Having been a seat mate with Paul Ryan on Ways and Means together for 16 years, and following him (to chair) the Ways and Means Committee,” Brady said, “he is exactly who he appears to be, which is an optimistic, bold thinker who cares deeply about his family in Janesville, Wisconsin.”
As for the party’s future – and his own – Brady demurred repeatedly.
“Today’s all about Speaker Ryan,” he said. “He’s going to run through the tape. We’ve got a strong record to run on in November, and so I’m just focused on finishing this year out and preserving this majority.”