REWRITING HISTORY
If Texans hadn’t done Watson deal, they’d have Darnold today
Imagine what the Texans would have done on the first day of the NFL draft if they had not traded up with Cleveland last year to select quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Who would the Texans have drafted with the 25th overall pick in 2017?
Who would the Texans have drafted with their first pick Thursday?
Let’s look back at last year’s draft, when former general manager Rick Smith swapped first-round draft choices with the Browns and shipped their No. 1 pick this year to move up to the 12th spot.
Smith drafted Watson, of course. It turned out to be a great decision because Watson was sensational in his six starts and became the team’s longwaited franchise quarterback — Houston’s best since the Oilers’ Warren Moon in 1993.
The Browns used the Tex-
ans’ pick last year to take safety Jabrill Peppers.
If the Texans had remained in the 25th spot, Smith would have had a number of players to consider.
The Texans could have drafted Peppers. Or, based on their impressive rookie contributions, they could have added, among others, cornerback Tre’Davious White, outside linebacker T.J. Watt, inside linebacker Reuben Foster, offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk or offensive tackle Cam Robinson.
Now, let’s fast-forward to Thursday. Remember, we’re considering what the Texans would have done if they had never pulled off the trade to get Watson.
Without Watson — and barring a quarterback taken after the first round or acquired in a trade — Tom Savage and Brandon Weeden would have been first and second on the depth chart last season.
Without Watson, there’s a chance the Texans would have won one game in Savage’s last season in Houston. In the Texans’ injury-plagued season, Savage won one start.
The Texans would have finished 1-15 and gone into Thursday’s first round with the second overall pick behind Cleveland.
In the Texans’ desperate need to finally secure a franchise quarterback, general manager Brian Gaine would have been able to choose any prospect other than Baker Mayfield, who went first overall to Cleveland.
Gaine and coach Bill O’Brien would have done their homework on the top-five quarterback prospects. With Mayfield out of the picture after getting drafted by the Browns, Gaine would have faced a difficult decision.
Would O’Brien have encouraged Gaine to draft Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson?
On Thursday, Darnold went to the New York Jets with the third overall pick. Buffalo traded up to get Allen at No. 7. Arizona traded up to get Rosen at No. 10, and Baltimore traded with Philadelphia at No. 32 to get Jackson.
O’Brien showed last season he could coach a quarterback with Watson’s skill set.
Of the quarterbacks available Thursday, Jackson was the most mobile to go with a tremendous upside. Darnold was the best combination of making plays in and out of the pocket. Allen had the strongest arm. Rosen might have been the most prepared to play as a rookie.
O’Brien prefers a pocket passer who also has mobility. Darnold, Allen and Jackson had success in and out of the pocket.
As the first round developed Thursday, Darnold was the first quarterback selected after Mayfield. So, it says here, Darnold would have been the Texans’ choice.
That may look like a nightmare rather than a fantasy for Texans’ fans contemplating life without Watson.
Nobody knows, of course, what kind of career Darnold will have. Nobody in their right mind would prefer Darnold over Watson at this stage of their careers.
Just as a reminder about the 2017 season, before he suffered the season-ending knee injury, Watson threw 19 touchdown passes, more than any quarterback in NFL history in his first seven games. He was on a pace to throw 43 touchdown passes.
Watson helped the Texans average 34 points in his six starts, including 39 in his last five. In the four games Watson played with starting receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, they averaged 40.4 points.
When Watson suffered the torn ACL, the Texans were first in average touchdowns per game and third in rushing.
Darnold may end up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but Texans’ fans wouldn’t trade Watson for any young quarterback. Maybe any quarterback, period.
Based on what the Browns did in last year’s first round and on Thursday, they ended up with Peppers and cornerback Denzel Ward (with their second first-round pick) in the trade that allowed the Texans to land Watson.
Gaine and O’Brien would make that deal all day every day.