It’s fuzzy math, but stats don’t tell whole story
Most math is simple. One plus one equals two. Two plus two is four. Four is greater than two.
But basketball isn’t always about math. Sometimes, the numbers don’t add up.
Four is greater than two? Well, yeah, the Golden State Warriors have four All-Stars, and the Rockets have two.
Wait a minute. That’s bad data. The Rockets had only one All-Star this season, because nine-time All-Star Chris Paul didn’t make this year’s roster. An egregious snub it was, but the vote was an indicator of the Rockets’ perceived value in the NBA equation. So wrong that is. Having a lone All-Star didn’t
keep the Rockets from posting the best record in the NBA.
It didn’t keep them from rolling past Minnesota and Utah in the first two rounds of the playoffs. It didn’t keep them from opening a 3-2 edge in a best-of-seven series against the Warriors in the Western Conference finals.
And it shouldn’t keep them from closing out the series against the defending NBA champions.
But the Rockets aren’t just facing the Warriors in Game 6 on Saturday without Paul being an All-Star, or on any of the All-NBA teams that were announced Thursday. They face them with Paul out of the game because of a hamstring strain suffered late in Game 5 on Thursday.
Man down. Leader out. Team in trouble? Not these Rockets.
There is no reason to doubt these Rockets. Their math isn’t so simple.
The team so built on math that its coaches joke about the analytics involved in its success, isn’t winning simply by the numbers. Numbers can’t measure this
Grit and determination, which isn’t measured by numbers, is the most important factor in the Rockets’ makeup.
“It’s the whole fiber of what we do,” coach Mike D’Antoni said. “It’s the most important thing. Without it, you’re a pretty nice-looking team and you play well at times, but you don’t beat a team like we beat (Thursday) night without grit and determination, and going on to the next play and not worrying about what happened.
“Being able to dig in for two straight games and holding them in the 90s is incredible, with guys that just continually show their resilience and their want to win.”
The analytically built Rockets don’t let logical theorems get in their way.
That they weren’t supposed to be able to win a game at Oracle Arena was an understandable theorem, considering Golden State had won an NBArecord 16 straight there before the teams played Tuesday.
That didn’t stop the Rockets. They have won two games in a row against a team that didn’t lose more than one game in any playoff series last season.
In many ways, the numbers don’t add up. James Harden, who made more 3-pointers than any player in the NBA this season, has missed 20 straight shots from that distance; nine to end Game 4 and 11 throughout Game 5.
Harden, who led the NBA in points per game with 30.4, has scored 24.5 in the last two games.
The Rockets averaged 112.4 points per game, but scored only 96.5 in the last two games.
The Rockets made a leaguerecord 15.3 3-pointers per game this season, but connected on 22 over the last two games.
The Rockets have one of the deepest benches in the NBA, but only two reserves have played in the last two games.
Yet, somehow, the Rockets have won two straight games against a team that doesn’t often lose.
Eric Gordon will step into the starting lineup.
Perhaps P.J. Tucker, who didn’t make a shot in Game 4, will take on more of the scoring load. Maybe Trevor Ariza, who made one shot Thursday, will. Or Gerald Green, the Houston native who wasn’t in the NBA when the season began, might get hot off the bench.
No matter the situation, no matter what it takes to get it done, the Rockets have figured out a way.
“They see the challenge,” D’Antoni said. “It’s been a challenge, it is a challenge. Whether (Paul’s) there or not, it’s a heck of a challenge, and they’re up to it. They’re looking forward to it.”
But will they finish off the Warriors in Oakland on Saturday? The numbers say it is possible but not probable.
Even Vegas oddsmakers list the Warriors as the favorites to win the Western Conference (and the NBA title), despite the Rockets needing to win one game to close out the series; Golden State must win two. Paul skews the odds
One reason the odds are not in their favor is Paul, who is second on the team in scoring (19.8 ppg) and assists (4.6), and third in rebounds (6.8) in the playoffs, will not take the floor.
To these Rockets, the only numbers that matter are the ones that make up the final score.
“We’re extremely confident, as usual, from top to bottom,” Harden said. “This is nothing new to us. Whether it’s myself or Chris or anybody else who has sat out a few games, guys have stepped in and contributed very well. So, it’s no different.
“It’s an opportunity that a lot of people never had and probably won’t ever have. It’s our job to go out there and have fun with it and do the same thing we’ve been doing. We want to take advantage of it.”