Women at the wheel may improve deadly Saudi roads
Changes to car sales, traffic, labor market among the impacts of new driving rule
Until last month, driving in Saudi Arabia was a male-only preserve and one in which chaotic traffic and risky habits combined to render the kingdom’s roadways among the deadliest in the world.
On June 24, the kingdom finally put an end to its legal ban on women driving, opening the way for millions of new drivers to navigate across a country three times bigger than Texas.
While the long-overdue policy shift provides relief to women who lacked freedom of mobility, the onset of so many new drivers — many of them inexperienced — has enormous consequences for transportation and the energy sector, as well as the labor market and public health. The long-term outcomes of ending the ban on the economic and health sectors are far from clear.
For starters, will lifting the ban result in more total driving or less? With the lifting of the ban, it is possible that, eventually, some 6 million women — 65 percent of the female driving population — could obtain licenses. However, having a license does not automatically confer access to a vehicle. Consultancy PwC estimates that by 2020, 3 million women in Saudi Arabia will receive licenses and actively begin driving.
Even under the ban, women were not stranded. Many paid men to drive them, either by taking a taxi or using a common ride-sharing service like Uber and Dubai-based Careem, popular in the Middle East. In fact, women comprised threequarters of the kingdom’s Careem and Uber customers. Other women were driven by their male relatives or family drivers. Of course, many women will continue to use these services. Others, however, may use their newfound independence — or the savings of not having to pay for a male driver — to opt for additional trips, or even begin working as a Careem or Uber driver. It is too early to estimate how this will play out.
The effect on car sales is clearer. As one of the world’s top destinations for luxury cars, vehicle manufacturers can expect Saudi sales to rise alongside the number of licensed female drivers. PwC forecasts that an annual sales growth will increase by 6 percent, with car sales remaining at elevated levels until 2025.
On its face, ushering in a huge number of new motorists would be inviting a spike in demand for gasoline and the Saudi crude oil that provides it. An increase in fossil fuel combustion would in turn contribute to Saudi Arabia’s already disproportionate emissions of climate-damaging carbon dioxide. One study calculated the onset of women driving would result in a 10 percent increase in gasoline consumption by 2021. Fortunately, Saudi authorities have imposed big increases in gasoline prices in recent months, which should moderate demand growth.
How might adding females to the traffic flow influence driving behavior? It is possible that dire mortality levels on Saudi roadways could improve. Evidence suggests that women drive at slower speeds and operate vehicles in a less aggressive manner than men, particularly in the Middle East. If this holds true in Saudi Arabia, the kingdom could see a welcome improvement in driving habits and, eventually, a much needed reduction in deadly crashes, the primary cause of death among young adults.
However, it is also possible that an increase in traffic due to additional female drivers could contribute to an increase in accident risk, outweighing the behavioral benefits above. Again, the outcomes remain difficult to forecast.
The labor market will also be affected, as more Saudi women take advantage of the ongoing relaxation of restrictions on workforce participation. As women increase their numbers within the kingdom’s labor pool, some will inevitably replace expatriate contract workers, some of whom may return to their home countries.
In addition to the direct effects of lifting the ban on traffic injuries and mortality, we suspect that reduced travel costs and improved female mobility can benefit public health through increased access to child care and health care, as well as by reducing birth rates (due to an increased female participation in the workforce) and by increasing the supply of female health professionals.
Although the lifting of the ban was preceded by arrests of more than a dozen women activists, allowing women to drive in Saudi Arabia represents a major achievement in social freedom and mobility for millions of women in the kingdom.
Let’s hope the Saudi authorities use the opportunity to improve safety on the kingdom’s chaotic roads.