Early voting lags in bond referendum

Just over 45,000 ballots are cast so far, but county officials expect numbers to rise

Fewer than 46,000 ballots have been cast in the first week of early voting on Harris County’s $2.5 billion flood bond referendum, but county officials expect the numbers to increase.

Fewer than 46,000 ballots have been cast in the first week of early voting on Harris County’s $2.5 billion flood bond referendum, but county officials on Monday said they expect the number of voters venturing to the polls to increase leading up to the Aug. 25 anniversary of Hurricane Harvey.

According to the Harris County Clerk’s office, 2,692 voters went to the polls in person Monday. Combined with 575 mail-in ballots returned Monday, a total of 45,517 voters have had their say through six days of early voting.

“Bond elections don’t usually get voters excited, but there are plenty of days of early voting,” Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart said.

Last week, Stanart estimated between 230,000 and 300,000 voters would cast ballots on the bond referendum. By Monday, he had dropped his projection to 150,000 to 200,000 total votes by the end of the election, even as he expects turnout to increase closer to the one-year anniversary of Harvey, when media coverage and advertisement in support of the flood bond will increase publicity.

That was part of the rationale Harris County Commissioners Court used in setting the referendum for Aug. 25, hoping the anniversary of the storm would be a reminder of the need for flood mitigation projects.

The bond would fund more than 230 projects, such as channel improvements, detention basins, flood plain land acquisition, new flood plain mapping and buyouts of more than 3,000 flood-prone buildings. If approved, it would be the largest local investment in flood control infrastructure since Harvey swamped more than 154,000 homes in Harris County.

If the bond is approved, Harris County owners would see their property taxes increase 2 to 3 cents per $100 of assessed value over the 10- to 15-year life of the bond. Residents who are disabled, or over the age of 65 and have a home worth less than $200,000, would see no tax increase.

Stanart attributed the low early turnout to the vote being the only item on the ballot and voters not being informed.

“Turnout will be high where people remember what happened a year ago.”

Robert Stein,

Rice University political scientist

“In the next two weeks, we will see increasing numbers of people voting,” agreed Joe Stinebaker, director of communications for Harris County Judge Ed Emmett.

Rice University political scientist Robert Stein said he is skeptical the number of voters will increase come Aug. 25, but added that low turnout does not mean a lack of support for the bond plan. He predicted the bond would pass with at least 60 percent of the votes cast.

A University of Houston poll last week that put support for the bond at about 62 percent.

Stein said low voter turnout is a “free rider” issue for residents who assume their vote does not matter.

“The public believes this (flood control bond) will pass and want it to pass,” he said. “But the assumption is perfectly reasonable that, ‘I’m not going to vote. Someone else will do it.’”

According to Stein, the average voter is roughly 60 to 65 years old, a homeowner, longtime resident and has been active in other elections. Alternatively, those not voting typically are younger renters who have lived in the area for less than 10 years.

“Turnout will be high where people remember what happened a year ago,” he said, emphasizing that the most heavilyhit areas like Kashmere Gardens, Sunnyside, Acres Homes and Kingwood are the most likely to have higher numbers of voters.

“It is troublesome that on an issue of this magnitude, there is low turnout,” Stein said.

He attributed the low vote tally so far to the fact that many residents are on vacation or have children who will not go back to school until Aug. 27, after the flood bond elections. Nonetheless, he said he was confident the bond will pass because of the public’s “greater awareness and need to do something” following Hurricane Harvey.

Early voting continues through Aug. 21.