Runs at a premium for streaky offense
In the moments after another anemic performance, A.J. Hinch was displeased. Rarely does the Astros’ 43-year-old fourth-year manager outwardly display angst. Sunday was not the time to change it. Hinch’s tone remained measured. So did his words.
“We didn’t score enough,” he said after Sunday’s 4-3 loss to the Mariners. “No one can ever sit up here and be satisfied. It’s a little rut, and it’s a hard game. You can criticize the performance because the results haven’t been there for us. We haven’t scored.”
In their 20 games since the All-Star break, the Astros have averaged 4.1 runs. They scored five per game in the 99 preceding the break.
Six of their last seven games have featured three or fewer runs. Consecutive game-winning homers from Marwin Gonzalez and Tyler White in San Francisco — both arriving after the Astros trailed 1-0 entering the eighth inning — spared the club from further ignominy.
Without them, this four-game losing streak would be seven. The Dodgers eked out a 3-2 win on Aug. 5, relishing George Springer’s absence for eight innings.
A day earlier, Houston humiliated its World Series counterpart. The 14-0 victory in Los Angeles was executed without Jose Altuve or Carlos Correa, and Springer totaled only one hit in six at-bats.
Gonzalez, Yuli Gurriel and Josh Reddick combined for eight hits. Their contributions afforded the improvised lineup — one without Springer, Correa or Altuve — a certain length that makes it formidable. Streakiness from anyone can shorten it.
This past weekend’s sweep by Seattle offered an illustration.
Carlos Correa returned for three of the four games, and replacing the production of the two others who remain injured does not fall solely on the aforementioned trio. But if the weekend is any indication, Correa’s impact will return gradually. He reached base three times in 13 plate appearances. His only hit was a check-swing dribbler up the first-base line.
“I feel like it’s getting better. I’m seeing more pitches, and I’m getting there,” Correa said. “Hopefully, I pick it up by the next series.”
In Correa’s prolonged absence, Gonzalez authored a resurgence at the most opportune time. He has four home runs since the All-Star break — three from the right side — and is slugging .532. He has raised his OPS 50 points after a miserable first half, one he exited with a .230 batting average.
“I’ve seen him concentrate more on shrinking his strike zone but also taking whatever the game is giving him,” Hinch said. “The more he’s had success with that, the more confident he’s been to continue that approach. He’s a difference maker in our lineup, certainly when we’re all complete, but we’ve needed him in this stretch where we’re trying to piece it together.”
Gurriel exists in the opposite frame. Earlier this season, he was baseball’s best hitter with runners in scoring position. He concluded the first half of the season with a .310 batting average and .784 OPS.
Since returning from the AllStar break, he has been relied upon to hit either third or cleanup while his injured teammates mend. In 82 plate appearances, he has one extra-base hit and four RBIs. His on-base percentage is .183.
Gurriel’s once robust OPS has been pared to .700. He did stroke a pinch-hit single in the eighth inning of Sunday’s game.
“He’s never going to draw a ton of walks, but he’s usually a little bit more selective, especially with guys in scoring position,” Hinch said. “We call it swing mode whenever a guy gets up to bat and wants to swing. He certainly has a plan. He wants to do damage and has a really good swing, but maybe a little bit too overanxious and too eager to put the ball in play as opposed to really getting a pitch to hit.”
In the second half, Gurriel is seeing 3.4 pitches per plate appearance. He saw 3.3 in the first.
His O-swing percentage — measured by FanGraphs as the percentage of pitches swung upon outside the strike zone — does not vary much from half to half.
It is 38.9 in the 20 games he’s played during the second half. It was 38.1 in the first. Chasing does not appear to be the crux of the issue.
“Mechanically, he gets a little bit rotational in his setup, and that creates a little bit of issues, but he’s working on it behind the scenes,” Hinch said. “He still hits the ball as hard as anyone on our team. We just have to make sure he’s swinging at the right pitches.”
As the games become more crucial, though, time it too valuable. Hinch acknowledged Sunday that White — on a 10-for-34 tear — is receiving playing time at the slumping 34-year-old first baseman’s expense.
The manager insisted he “goes with the hottest guys I can” while the team is mired in such a slump.
“The guys are working, they’re trying to get good pitches to hit, and they’re all carrying the burden of a few at-bats up to the batter’s box with them.” Hinch said. “It’s a small little glitch in our schedule, but it is what it is. Results are what they are.”