The thrill of victory and agony of defeat
Stunning loss illustrates just how ill-equipped Nationals are to contend for postseason spot
At 9:59 p.m. Sunday, I was convinced the Washington Nationals were going to make the playoffs, and be dangerous once they got there.
They had absorbed a galling loss to the best-inthe-National League Chicago Cubs on Friday, responded with a resounding win on Saturday, handed the ball to the best pitcher on the planet on Sunday, and pushed across enough runs to win. They would sail to St. Louis closer to the division lead than they had been since late June. They would be getting back pieces of their broken bullpen before the playoffs. Watch out.
And at 10:02 p.m. Sunday — and at all points since then — I have been convinced there’s no way this group can reach October. None at all.
Neither is true, of course. But the series of events that turned a statement-making 3-0 Nationals’ victory into a kick-inthe-groin 4-3 loss on the most imaginary of all baseball plays — the two-out, two-strike, down-three, walkoff grand slam — makes it seem as if that 1/ 162nd of the major league season means more than any other.
“It’s about how you respond to this,” Max Scherzer told reporters at Wrigley Field as the Nationals stepped over the detritus left by this disaster and packed for St. Louis.
Two potential responses: an impressive finish to this road trip against the Cardinals that yields meaningful and crucial games against Philadelphia next week. Or a fold.
The Nats themselves will have a role in deciding. But David Bote’s last-gasp swing against Ryan Madson not only felt crippling, it exposed issues that would have, eventually, shown up for the Nationals.
Musical chairs at closer
When general manager Mike Rizzo made one trade for two players last summer — bringing in Madson and Sean Doolittle from Oakland — he solidified a bullpen that had been a disaster. When he traded for Kansas City closer Kelvin Herrera this June — getting ahead of the trade deadline — the Nats had a back end of the bullpen needed to compete not only for a spot in the postseason, but in the postseason.
Now, that bullpen doesn’t exist. Doolittle has been on the disabled list since before the All-Star break with a foot injury; he’s likely to throw off a mound this week, but that doesn’t mean he’ll pitch in a game before the end of the month. Herrera struggled upon his arrival, experienced shoulder pain and went on the DL. He’s throwing now, but we don’t yet know when he’ll do so from a mound.
And now Madson — the author of Sunday’s collapse — said he couldn’t finish his pitches because he couldn’t properly grip the ball because of pain that goes shooting down his leg.
What else? Throw in the fact that Rizzo jettisoned two relievers — Brandon Kintzler, who got one out and gave up two runs for the Cubs Sunday, and Shawn Kelley — because, as he said, they were “in the way.” This is a fragile and frail group.
So who’s the closer for this Cardinals series? Koda Glover? That might be right. If there are six more meaningful outs, they go to … some combination of Sammy Solis, Matt Grace, Justin Miller and Wander Suero?
That just doesn’t seem like a formula with which to climb back into a race.
Path to playoffs exists
And yet, there’s still a path to the postseason here. As Bote’s ball sailed over Wrigley Field’s ivy, it seemed unlikely or impossible. But look at the math.
Monday night’s series opener in St. Louis was the first of the final 44 games of the season for Washington. The Nats are 60-59 after Monday’s 7-6 loss — on another walkoff homer. For three weeks or so — basically since the All-Star break — I have had in my head a number of wins it will take to win the NL East: 87. In fact, I was talking to an NL executive from another team last week, and when he said, “What does it take to win that division?” we both said, “Eighty-seven” at the same time.
Yes, it seems like an arbitrary number. But the thinking is twofold. First, there isn’t a juggernaut in the division. And second, since the current two wildcard format was put into place for the 2012 season, 87 wins has been the best line of demarcation for making the postseason or not. In that span, 63 teams have won at least 87 games, and 59 have made the playoffs.
So, how to get there? The first-place Braves finished Monday night one game ahead of the Phillies in the NL East after sweeping the Marlins in a doubleheader. Philadelphia, idle on Monday, would have to go just 22-23 to finish 87-75. Atlanta, similarly, could play sub-.500 ball — 21-24 — to get to 87 wins.
The Nationals would have to go 27-16 — a .628 clip — to reach that magic number. You’re essentially asking a team that has needed 118 games to get two above .500 to play the final 43 games 11 games above .500. It’s difficult. But not impossible.
Which is kind of the way the Nationals have to approach getting over the dizzying events against the Cubs: Difficult. Not impossible. Regardless of how it has felt since 10:02 p.m. Sunday.