Popular county judge aims re-election campaign at Dems
If there is a nightmare keeping Harris County Judge Ed Emmett awake at night, it may go like this: It starts months before November, when Democrats tell pollsters they, of course, will vote for Emmett, even though he’s a Republican. They like how he led the county during Hurricane Harvey, and the storms before that, stretching back to Ike a decade ago.
Election Day arrives. A surge of Democrats turn out, motivated by anger with Republicans at the top of the ticket and President Donald Trump, who is absent from the ballot. They have no quarrel with Emmett. But the lines are long, the ballot is long, and the county judge’s race is below dozens of state and federal contests.
At the top of the ballot, however, voters can select the straight ticket of their party with one button. Democrats pick theirs, and
leave. And Emmett loses to a 27year-old who never has held political office.
That is the scenario, in the last Texas election with straight-ticket voting, election researchers say could sweep Emmett out of office. Though Emmett is likely to win a third full term, they said in an election in which Republican voters likely will be a minority, the judge should be reminding Democrats to buck their party and stick with him.
“It’s all about Democrats voting for Ed,” said Robert Stein, a political science professor at Rice University. “I wouldn’t rule out the possibility, however remote or odd it sounds, that Democrats never remember to.”
Emmett’s opponent is Lina Hidalgo, a 27-year-old community advocate and graduate student in her first campaign for political office. Emmett is far more experienced, has raised more money and is more widely known than Hidalgo, yet takes her challenge seriously. In the pair’s joint appearances Emmett has campaigned aggressively, seeking to portray Hidalgo as a candidate illprepared to run the nation’s thirdlargest county whose passion should not be confused with expertise.
In an interview from his downtown office on a dreary afternoon, Emmett, 69, said he will focus the final weeks of his campaign on swaying Democrats he needs to build a winning coalition.
“Not a day goes by where somebody doesn’t walk up to me and say I’m the only Republican they ever vote for, or ‘I’m a Democrat and I always vote for you,’ ” Emmett said. “My job is to make sure they find me on the ballot.”
Emmett’s campaign had $934,000 on hand as of its July filing report, and he said he intends to spend much of it on an advertising campaign targeting Democrats. He is unafraid of losing voters on the right. Though some conservative Republicans may accuse the moderate Emmett of acting like a Democrat, he is confident those critics would not risk an actual one being elected.
Emmett has survived a Democratic wave before. In 2008, Barack Obama rode a Democratic surge to win Harris County by 1.6 percent, while Emmett eked out 6.3-point victory over Democrat David Mincberg. Emmett enjoyed the benefit of incumbency, as the former state representative had been appointed county judge in 2007 when Robert Eckels retired. He was widely praised by residents for his leadership during Hurricane Ike, which had struck Houston just seven weeks earlier.
The county executive cruised in his two most recent elections, winning 61 percent of votes in 2010, and 83 percent four years ago, when Democrats failed to field a candidate.
The county electorate, however, continues to shift to the left. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 12 points, on the same evening the county’s Republican sheriff and district attorney were defeated.
Democratic voters again could turn out in high numbers this year, motivated by dissatisfaction with the Trump administration and excited by Democrats at the top of the ticket, including Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke.
Emmett is confident he can convince enough Democrats to stick with him. At the annual State of the County speech on Sept. 13, Emmett was introduced by Democratic state Rep. Garnet Coleman, who also took the opportunity to endorse him.
Stein said his research shows Emmett winning re-election, but with only around 55 percent of the vote — despite being viewed positively by 70 to 80 percent of the electorate. University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus said Emmett, though popular, could become collateral damage in a backlash against the Republican Party.
“The wave may very well drown a moderate Republican,” he said. “That’s true for Emmett.”
Not taking chances
Some longtime incumbents, especially those in the twilight of their careers, take a hands-off approach to campaigning. They point to their track records, avoid criticizing opponents and coast to victory.
Any thought Emmett would take that approach evaporated in the opening minutes of the Houston Chronicle editorial board’s meeting with the pair in late September. Emmett contrasted himself with Hidalgo from the start, and sought for the hourlong tussle that followed to cast her as a bright candidate with potential who has a limited grasp of county policy and misunderstands the role of county judge.
Hidalgo, he charged, focuses too much on issues Commissioners Court does not manage, such as early childhood education and new light rail lines, and too little on emergency preparedness, which he views as a primary responsibility.
“How on earth would she respond to a hurricane? We don’t know,” Emmett said. “I think I’ve got a very clear record.”
Emmett’s experience is among his greatest assets, but if he is too pugnacious he risks appearing condescending to an opponent who is younger, non-white and a woman. During one exchange in which Hidalgo said Emmett had sought to fire the county’s chief public defender, the judge appeared to let his frustration get the better of him.
“You’ve kind of gone into pyscho-babble,” he said.
In his office, Emmett acknowledged he must walk the tightrope between being the most qualified candidate and a know-it-all, and said he has a reputation for being courteous. He said the fact that he has four adult children, two of them daughters, helps him bridge the generational divide between himself and Hidalgo.
Emmett insists he has a responsibility to illustrate what he says are Hidalgo’s weaknesses as a candidate. He said her professional experience, which includes internships and summers spent as a medical interpreter in Houston for Spanish-speaking patients, leaves Hidalgo without the skills to lead the county’s emergency response to the next storm.
“I’m running against a person who has never really had a job, at all,” the judge said. “She has never really lived here, other than in high school.”
Final term?
Emmett suggested this may be his last campaign, but declined to rule out seeking another term should he win.
He suffered a minor stroke two weeks before Hurricane Harvey in 2017, but said he is in good health. The judge committed to serving his full term if elected, dismissing rumors that he hopes to resign and select a handpicked successor, much as he was appointed to the job 11 years ago.
Emmett acknowledges the county and its flood control district could have done more between Ike and Harvey to prepare for future storms, but said voters before Harvey likely would have balked at paying higher property taxes to fund improvements. He said he wants to oversee the construction of more than 200 flood mitigation projects funded by the $2.5 billion flood bond voters passed in August. Emmett and commissioners spent the summer hawking the proposal at public meetings.
Emmett was contemplative about the possibility he could lose. He concluded a defeat would have little to do with him as a candidate and even less with his opponent.
“I wouldn’t take it personally,” he said.