A more diverse county turning the tide
Fort Bend caught in ‘blue wave’ as local Republicans swept from office
Brian Middleton sensed that Fort Bend County might be on the verge of something momentous.
Running to become the county’s first Democratic district attorney in 26 years and its first African-American DA ever, Middleton targeted voters who were newly registered and those with low voting history.
His victory Tuesday night — along with a veritable Democratic sweep of Fort Bend County’s top office holders — still came as a bit of a shock. The news didn’t really sink in until about 3:30 the next morning.
“I tried to go to sleep and woke up and I was like, ‘Man, this really happened,’ ” he said.
If Fort Bend County were a microcosm of Texas, the state would be as blue as California.
Across the state, the “blue wave” that had long been a dream of the Democratic Party faithful failed to materialize in Tuesday’s midterm elections, with Republicans sweeping every statewide office for the 20th consecutive year, albeit by closer-than-expected margins.
But in Fort Bend County — the rapidly growing suburb southwest of Houston often heralded as a beacon of diversity — Democrats had their best election day since the political power base in Texas shifted from Democrat to Republican decades ago.
Political analysts attributed the near sweep in part to the county’s growing diversity, which also was reflected in the backgrounds of some of the winners: Middleton, who defeated
Republican Cliff Vacek, is African-American, and Democrat KP George, who unseated longtime County Judge Robert Hebert, was born in India.
Fort Bend County Democrats also reaped the benefits of a surge of grassroots excitement triggered by the campaign of U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke. The effect was enhanced by a backlash to President Donald Trump and state Republican leaders, said University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus.
“Democrats have been so unhappy with the Republican-run statehouse and White House that they’re willing to sweep every Republican out, regardless of who they are and how long they’ve been there,” Rottinghaus said. “It should’ve been fairly apparent to all Republican incumbents that there was a target on their backs.”
‘A new dynamic’
In Fort Bend County elections Tuesday, Democrats also ousted Republican incumbents for Precinct 4 commissioner and district clerk. Middleton won the open district attorney race, and all 22 Democrats who ran for judicial positions — state district courts, appeals courts and county courts-at-law — prevailed; the lone Republican victor was opposed only by a Libertarian candidate.
Fort Bend County voters favored Democrats over Republicans for every statewide office on the ballot except governor. And even in that race, Gov. Greg Abbott, who won 56 percent of the statewide vote over challenger Lupe Valdez, managed only a slim plurality in Fort Bend County, besting Valdez by a mere 720 votes out of more than 250,000 cast.
Only in legislative and congressional campaigns did the Democrats fall short. Sri Kulkarni, who failed in his bid to unseat Republican U.S. Rep. Pete Olson in the multi-county 22nd Congressional District, lost in his district’s portion of Fort Bend County by 5 percentage points, roughly the same as the districtwide margin. Republican state Reps. Rick Miller and John Zerwas defeated Democratic challengers.
O’Rourke’s coattails were considerably longer than those of 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. She carried Fort Bend County by 7 percentage points over Trump, but the GOP prevailed in most local races that year. County Commissioner Richard Morrison, a Democrat, was ousted by Republican challenger Vincent Morales, and Republicans held on to the sheriff’s office and two district judgeships.
The broader Democratic gains this year can be explained in part by the county’s diverse population growth, said Sarah Slamen, a political consultant who grew up in Fort Bend County and has worked on campaigns there.
“After the Hillary win in 2016, you saw strong top-ofthe-ticket gains two years later that capitalized on these new voters who have moved into the district,” Slamen said. “It’s a new dynamic.”
Parties must ‘reach out’
Fort Bend County, with a population of about 764,000, has grown almost 30 percent since 2010. The 19 percent growth among Anglos has been far outpaced by Asians (56 percent) and Hispanics (33 percent), according to census figures. The African-American population has increased by 22 percent.
The county also has become richer and older, trends that would normally indicate growing conservative or Republican strength. But in addition to the increasing ethnic and racial diversity, advances in educational attainment tend to favor Democrats. The share of the county’s residents with bachelor’s degrees has grown from 38 percent to 47 percent since 2010.
Ken DeMerchant, a software engineer who defeated longtime Precinct 4 Commissioner James Patterson by about 3 percentage points, said these trends indicate that the 2018 election was not an outlier fueled solely by a charismatic Senate candidate or straight-ticket voting.
“The demographics are changing, and I think that’s going to make it more of a Democratic county,” DeMerchant said.
Analysts said Democrats’ failure to win majorities in legislative races in Fort Bend County reflected the locations of those districts within the county and the geographic distribution of Democratic and Republican voters.
A Houston Chronicle analysis of precinct-level data shows that voters in western Fort Bend County heavily favored Vacek, the Republican district attorney candidate, and Hebert, the Republican county judge. An exception was Kendleton, a largely African-American town on the county’s west side, where Middleton and George drew more support. Needville in the southwest, and Fulshear and Simonton in the northwest, showed strong support for the Republican district attorney and county judge candidates.
It’s unclear how the county’s Republican Party will respond to the Democratic surge. The county GOP chairman, Jacey Jetton, did not respond to requests for comment.
Hebert said Republicans must improve their efforts to connect with new residents as the county continues to grow.
“It is a fact that urbanized areas, as they continue to urbanize, move closer to a moderate, progressive position politically, and parties have to reach out and take advantage of that if they want to sustain political power,” said Hebert. “The Democrats did a better job than we did. I tip my hat.”
Cynthia Ginyard, Fort Bend County Democratic Party chair since 2016, said she and others involved made a year-round effort to register voters. They went to carnivals, schools, festivals and the county fair. A combination of voter outreach, the political climate and demographic changes helped elect Democrats, Ginyard said.
“I think it’s a picture of the county. I believe that we are such a wonderful, diverse county in many ways,” said Ginyard. “Our county leadership should reflect that. What happened on Tuesday was a picture of who we are.”