Democrats in Texas must play long game
The pre-election “blue wave” mantra in Texas was always a little over the top. In Harris and Dallas counties, it was believable. But statewide? Not so much.
Then Election Day came and went, with Beto O’Rourke, like many other statewide Democrats, making history by almost squeaking out victory. It was, by most accounts, the biggest non-win win in 40 years — a political earthquake that certainly shook, but not toppled, the GOP foundation.
“They call it ‘the ruby-red Texas’ and all that,” Jeff Roe, Sen. Ted Cruz’s chief strategist said after the election. “It’s just not.”
“Nervous Republicans,” the Texas Tribune reported, “see the largest warning sign of all, beyond the frightening election returns in the cities: The Democrats now have a Texas farm team.”
Talk of a deep purpling of Texas is now a legit possibility — if Democrats, now at a crossroads, pick the right path.
One path is to build on the O’Rourke strategy, which led with a positive and unifying message that spoke to all Texans. Beto spoke often of showing up — physically in all 254 counties and figuratively, being there for all people, not PACs. He was a happy warrior, breaking out the boxing gloves against Cruz (albeit a little late).
The other path, embraced by former candidate for governor Wendy Davis and the Texas Democratic Party, is defined largely by identity politics. It speaks to a more narrow slice of the electorate — women, LGBT people, Latinos — by making identity front and center. Sheriff Lupe Valdez essentially ran for governor this year on being a Latina lesbian. Or that was a perception anyway.
Had those of us who helped bring same-sex marriage to the U.S. — in legislatures, courts and on the ballot — talked about it in terms of gay identity or rights, we would not have won that fight when we did. As I wrote in the Stanford Social Innovation Review, we won by broadening the message to make marriage about freedom, family and commitment, making it appealing to the masses while staying true to our values.
The problem with identity politics is that it’s unintentionally exclusionary. It doesn’t speak to all voters — especially in Texas. And there’s no evidence I’m aware of that identity works as an electoral strategy for progressives. For conservatives, it does. See President Trump.
So the road ahead is clearer than it’s been in decades for Texas Democrats. Now, we just need to build the statewide machinery and infrastructure to execute a Beto-style strategy. That means seriously investing in in-state fundraising, grassroots, digital and communications capacity and doing so with a sense of urgency.
Far-right conservatives have been building their infrastructure for decades. They’ve cornered the political information market, from talk radio to new digital “news” sites like Breitbart Texas and local TV news dominance with pro-Trump Sinclair News. Their Texas market is large, according to Vox’s map. They have endless homegrown groups (PACs) to saturate Texas with their message and play hardball on the information battlefield.
The bottom line: They have a bullhorn. We don’t. It’s time to invest in a media machine of our own that digitally broadcasts to a wide net of people across all 800 miles of the state.
Electorally, the next battle royal is the presidential election in 2020. While this is a bold statement, surely laughable to some, it’s not a totally unattainable goal to get a majority of Texans to forgo Trump for the Democrat on the ticket. (Huge caveat: It depends on who the Democratic nominee is.)
Certainly, the hard-core GOP base in Texas loves President Donald Trump, but there are some cracks in his support. Some polls this fall had Texans divided, almost evenly, on his job approval rating.
Much more doable, however, is sweeping the table in 2022. Who will be our candidates for statewide office? It’s not too early to begin candidate recruitment and capacity building for those races. Long-term strategic planning will help prevent Democrats from doing what we’re known to do: snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.