Style of offense to stay grounded
The 54-51 Monday night track meet between Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams has caused Texans fans to demand coach Bill O’Brien uncap his offense and allow Deshaun Watson to compile video gametype numbers.
It’s not going to happen for a multitude of reasons.
First, let me point out there is no one in the Chiefs organization — from owner Clark Hunt to coach Andy Reid and to their players — who wouldn’t trade the three-point loss for the kind of uneven performance the Texans had in their 23-21 victory
at Washington.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes would trade his six touchdown passes in a heartbeat for the Chiefs to be 10-1 rather than 9-2.
Teams across the NFL are getting the same reaction after watching one of the most exciting games in league history.
Except in New Orleans, where the Saints are averaging 37.8 points, including 48 in their last three games, and riding a ninegame winning streak that includes a 45-35 victory over the Rams that gives them the tiebreaker in the playoff race.
And except for fans in Indianapolis, where the Colts are averaging 36.5 points in their four-game winning streak that’s allowed them to overcome a 1-5 start.
Some offenses are touchdown challenged, and the Texans are one of them. They don’t have the speed, big-play ability or pass protection the Chiefs and Rams have. And they won’t until next season.
Watson has started 16 career games. He has 36 touchdown passes and 16 interceptions. He’s thrown for 4,194 yards and completed 64.2 percent of his attempts. His rating is 102.2.
Think about what Watson will be capable of accomplishing in his third season. Imagine how prolific the offense can be in 2019 with DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller flanking Keke Coutee in the slot around a line rebuilt in the offseason by general manager Brian Gaine.
As it is, O’Brien has to develop strategy based on the strengths and weaknesses of his offense.
It says here O’Brien and his offensive assistants are doing a terrific job of masking the obvious weaknesses in the pass protection and the loss of Fuller for the season and Coutee for five games to help the team build a seven-game winning streak and a two-game lead in the AFC South entering Monday night’s game against Tennessee at NRG Stadium.
No matter how loud fans and media howl for a change in O’Brien’s offensive strategy, it’s just not going to happen this season unless the Texans pounce on a team early and often as they did against Miami (42-23) or they fall behind and have to play catch-up.
O’Brien has never admitted this, and he won’t. But after watching Watson withstand the seven-sack, 12-knockdown beatdown against Buffalo, he changed his strategy.
No matter how maddening it is to watch O’Brien call so many handoffs, especially on first down, it’s been working.
Watson is throwing fewer passes and running less. The idea is to protect him as much as possible because, without him, the offense will be destitute, as it was last season after he suffered the knee injury.
If Watson is on the field, as he has been for all but one play despite suffering multiple injuries, the Texans have a chance to win the division and host a playoff game.
And based on their winning streak and a schedule that doesn’t include a team that currently has a winning record, it’s not out of the question they could earn a first-round bye for the first time in franchise history.
Over the last four games — or since the victory over Buffalo — Watson has averaged 23 passes and 15 completions. He hasn’t thrown more than 24 times. He’s thrown for more than 213 yards once. But he has nine touchdowns and two interceptions during that stretch to go with eight sacks.
The move from a wide-open passing game that exposed Watson to so many hits and injury has been noticeable.
Over the last four games, the Texans have averaged 34 rushes (third in the league) and 141.5 rushing yards (fourth). Their time of possession has increased, and the more they have the ball, the less they have to defend the opposing offense, which keeps the defense rested.
There are a lot of fans who want to pull out their hair when O’Brien calls runs on first down for 1- or 2-yard gains, but that strategy worked pretty well in the two-point victory over Washington.
Now, for everyone who continues to complain about O’Brien calling for so many first-down runs, let’s look at the results at FedEx Field.
The Texans ran 20 times on first down for 89 yards (4.4 yards a carry). Lamar Miller had runs of 11 and 21 yards. Alfred Blue had an 11-yard run. They combined for five runs of negative or zero yards.
O’Brien called for Watson to throw 10 times on first down. He was 7-of-8 for 97 yards and a touchdown. He was sacked once and scrambled for 6 yards.
The Texans finished with 139 yards rushing, including 86 by Miller and 46 by Blue. The most impressive part of their strategy is they lost starting guards Zach Fulton and Senio Kelemete and were still able to run on a Washington defense that went into the game ranked fifth against the run, allowing 90.9 yards a game.
As the Texans prepare for the nationally televised game against the Titans and an opportunity to fashion a team-record eightgame winning streak, there’s one thing as certain as traffic jams on 610 West. As soon as they lose a game, there will be fans screaming “I told you so” and shrieking for O’Brien to be fired. And it will be so unfair.