O’Rourke campaign support dwindles
Two weeks ago, as his 2020 Democratic rivals dispatched avalanches of email appeals in the last hours of quarterly fundraising, Democrat Beto O’Rourke helped raise money for the Diocesan Migrant and Refugee Services in his hometown of El Paso.
It was yet another example of O’Rourke proceeding at his own pace in the Democratic presidential race, defying norms for a candidate for president. So far, it’s an approach that has yielded limited results, evidenced by a modest $3.6 million fundraising score in the most recent quarter.
There are still seven months to go before primary season voting, but his report this week added to his failure thus far to match high expectations for him raised by his $80 million near-upset of Sen. Ted Cruz last year.
O’Rourke’s receipts through June 30 look meager when stacked up to the $6 million he raised on his first official day of candidacy, the $9.4 million total for last quarter and when viewed alongside the tens of millions landing in the campaign accounts of rivals.
“In comparison to other candidates, other top-tier candidates, it looks like it’s flatlining,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston.
At a time when campaign receipts are a measure of campaign health, O’Rourke’s didn’t come near those polling higher in the race: Joe Biden ($21.5 million), Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren ($19.1 million), California Sen. Kamala Harris ($12 million), Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders ($18 million) and South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg ($24.8
million).
O’Rourke also ranked behind New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, who raised $4.5 million and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who raised $3.9 million. But he reported more than Julián Castro, the former San Antonio mayor whose campaign raised $2.8 million, representing a surge thanks to a recent strong debate performance.
Nonetheless, O’Rourke tweeted Tuesday: “Our campaign is powered not by PACs, but by people — teachers and students, grassroots donors pitching in from across the country. We are so grateful for their support and hope you'll be as inspired by their stories as we've been.”
Cooling fervor
On Sunday, while other 2020 Democratic hopefuls focused on President Donald Trump’s incendiary tweets and campaign basics, O’Rourke spent his time revealing both he and his wife, Amy, come from families who owned slaves. The disclosure was prompted by an investigation into his roots by the Guardian, which established his great-great-great grandfather had owned two women.
Writing on the online platform Medium, O’Rourke asserted that people need to know their own personal stories as they relate to the national story of whether descendants of slaves should be paid reparations.
“It is only then, I believe, that we can take the necessary steps to repair the damage done and stop visiting this injustice on the generations that follow ours,” among Democratic hopefuls who have said with varying specificity we should study whether to pay Americans who prove their ancestors were slaves.
O’Rourke’s presidential campaign has weathered unsteady moments before. Speaking of Amy O’Rourke, after announcing his candidacy, he said: “She is raising, sometimes with my help,” their three children. The remark was viewed by many women as sexist and backwardthinking.
The former El Paso mayor has shuttled between campaign strategies, acknowledging in May he needed to “do a better job.” His polling numbers flat or falling, O’Rourke began seeking national television appearances.
By most accounts, O’Rourke prospered little from the Democratic debate three weeks ago. As others grappled with complex policy matters such as immigration and health insurance, O’Rourke spoke loftily of “a new kind of politics.” He drew quizzical looks from others on the stage with a lengthy oration in Spanish and was on the receiving end of tough-tone lectures from Castro and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio.
Words like “slumping” have appeared in front of O’Rourke’s name, many of them asking why the buzz around him has disappeared.
On Sunday, a front-page Washington Post article asked that question beneath a headline that said: “Texans’ allegiance to him has vanished as quickly as ‘Betomania.’”
On Monday, a CNN headline offered a similar assessment: “With summer heating up, Beto O’Rourke’s campaign cools down.” And that was before the disappointing finance report.
The O’Rourke campaign dispatched a don’t-worry email to supporters this week, reminding them of basics, including that he has already met the donor threshold set by the Democratic National Committee for the fall debates.
Still reasons for hope
There’s money to carry out strategy, the memo advised. O'Rourke reported $5.2 million in the bank to open July, after spending $5.3 million in the second quarter.
“We always expected a slowdown, mostly because we never expected to be moving that fast. The truth is, when you’re prioritizing face-to-face conversations like we are, fundraising growth can be a slow burn,” wrote campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon, a data analytics whiz who oversaw battleground strategy when Barack Obama captured the White House.
“Polls come and go. Debates happen. But at the end of the day, none of that BS matters,” she wrote. “This is a campaign with a real energy, real growth and a real shot at winning the primary.”
Rottinghaus, author of Inside Texas Politics, cautions it’s far too early too count O’Rourke out.
“He’s taken some hits, so he’s limping to the next race — but he’s still upright,” he said. “At this point, any candidate who is in the mix has the potential to break out.”
Political strategist Simon Rosenberg, founder and executive director of New Democrat Network, a Democratic-aligned think tank, said the next several months will be critical for O’Rourke.
The lagging fundraising “clearly is a warning sign that he has to start penetrating and breaking through soon or it will be too late. He has to perform better in the next debate than he did in the last one,” Rosenberg said.
Matt Angle, who directs the Lone Start Project, a Democraticaligned PAC, said O’Rourke has an opportunity to show the strength and resilience that Democrats want in a candidate opposing Trump.
He noted the comebacks of John Kerry and other recent nominees, and the experiences of Texans including Ann Richards, who was counted out in her 1990 race for governor in the primary and then counted out again before defeating Republican Clayton Williams.
“If you’re going to make a comeback, you have to have something to come back from,” Angle said of O’Rourke’s straits.
Nate Lerner, a New Yorker who launched the “Draft Beto” campaign that helped lure O’Rourke into the race, is still holding out hope for O’Rourke — potentially in Iowa, which opens the primary season Feb. 3 and where O’Rourke has spent much of his time on the ground holding town halls reminiscent of his Texas campaign.
Lerner said he’s confident O’Rourke is building energy there with a slew of new campaign offices, even if it isn’t breaking through nationally or placing high in state polls. In a Des Moines Register poll in June, O’Rourke registered at 2 percent.
“He’s a guy who’s shown time and time again he can generate momentum when he needs to,” Lerner said. “I certainly wouldn’t count him out. There’s still a lot of time between now and voting in Iowa.”