Pakistan running out of options as India tightens grip on Kashmir
NEW DELHI — The dispute over Kashmir has long been a flashpoint between India and Pakistan, with each nuclear-armed country holding the threat of retaliation over the other. But when India stripped the Indian-controlled region of Kashmir of its autonomy this week, Pakistan’s reaction appeared to be limited to high-level hand-wringing.
As Pakistan marks its independence day next week, it increasingly feels like a nation with its back against the wall, with few options to protect its existential interests. Its economy is teetering on the brink of collapse, and its international allies have either stayed silent over Kashmir or defected in support of India.
A conventional military reaction is probably too costly as Pakistan seeks to shore up its finances. And one of the most effective strategies Pakistan has traditionally employed — using an array of militant groups as proxies to keep neighbors in check — has become a liability, amid the threat of international sanctions. (Pakistan has denied that it uses militant groups to achieve its foreign policy objectives.)
“The economy is hindering Pakistan’s options. As they head to a recession can they really afford a war right now?” said Arif Rafiq, the president of Vizier Consulting, a consulting firm on South Asian political and security issues. “Their capacity to bear the cost of a full-fledged conflict with India over Kashmir, whether via insurgent networks or conventionally — there just are not a lot of options Pakistan has.”
Even Afghan Taliban leaders, who have long been sheltered in Pakistan, seem to have turned their backs on their ally of late.
Last year, in an effort to end its global isolation, Pakistan agreed to help the United States end its war in Afghanistan by delivering the Taliban leadership to the table for peace talks. In doing so, Pakistan employed one of its greatest sources of leverage with the United States. Those talks are now nearing a conclusion, with American negotiators sitting across the table from their Taliban counterparts and aiming to reach a settlement soon.
In recent days, several Pakistani government officials have demanded that their country end its cooperation in the peace talks to protest U.S. silence over India’s elimination of Kashmir’s autonomy. But the Taliban on Thursday issued a forceful statement warning against any meddling.
“Linking the issue of Kashmir with that of Afghanistan by some parties will not aid in improving the crisis at hand because the issue of Afghanistan is not related, nor should Afghanistan be turned into the theater of competition between other countries,” the Taliban statement read.
The outcome of the peace talks and Pakistan’s role in them will likely influence whether the country finds itself blacklisted internationally over its continued support of terrorist organizations, a move that could save or break its faltering economy.
The Paris-based group that monitors terrorism financing, the Financial Action Task Force, will vote in October on whether Pakistan has done enough to crack down on militant networks at home.