Duck hunters await answers to 2 key questions
This past week’s full moon saw the first trickles of blue-winged teal migrating south from their nesting grounds on prairies of the north-central
U.S. and southcentral Canada, many of the little ducks headed for Texas.
A few small groups of bluewings, almost exclusively adult males who head south ahead of hens still busy raising ducklings and undergoing their annual molt, are already here. They can be seen floating and feeding in stock tanks and on farm ponds, lake shores and coastal prairie wetlands.
A lot more bluewings will come behind them ahead of Texas’ statewide teal-only hunting season Sept. 14-29, followed by ducks and geese as autumn arrives.
How many birds? Almost certainly nearly as many as this past year and maybe more depending on just how successful the birds were at reproducing this year. At least that’s the takeaway from this week’s release of data from the annual survey of more than 2 million square miles of the north-central U.S. through prairie Canada and into Alaska — the midcontinent heart of duck nesting grounds.
An even bigger wild card is what kind of habitat the birds will find when they arrive in Texas, but more on that later.
The aerial survey, conducted each spring since 1955, gives insight into the first question by estimating the abundance of the 10 most common duck species and the number of natural wetlands on the landscape.
This year’s survey indicates the total spring breeding population of the 10 surveyed duck species at 38.9 million birds. That’s down 6 percent from the previous year and the lowest since 2008’s estimate of 37.3 million. But it remains 10 percent above the 1955-2018 average and is 10 million or so ducks more than the spring population in any year between 1985 to 1993, when severe drought on the northern prairies produced a decade of low duck numbers and restrictive hunting regulations.
While a very dry winter and spring in prairie grassland regions of Canada saw wetlands there decline 22 percent from 2018 figures, falling to 19 percent of the long-term (1961-2018) average, a very wet winter and spring farther south made up for it. The spring 2019 “pond count” for the north-central U.S. — mostly the Dakotas and Montana — was up 36 percent from the previous year and 26 percent above the longterm average.
Total “pond count” for the surveyed area — 5 million wetlands — was relatively unchanged from 2018 and right about at the long-term average of 5.2 million.
Bird count a mixed bag
Three of the 10 surveyed duck species saw population bumps from the previous year; mallards were up 2 percent, greenwinged teal were up 4 percent, and gadwall were up 13 percent. Wigeon numbers were unchanged from 2018. And six species saw fewer ducks return to the nesting grounds than the previous year.
Redhead numbers took the sharpest tumble, dropping 27 percent from 2018. Bluewings also declined, falling 16 percent. Shovelers dropped 13 percent and canvasbacks were down 5 percent.
But populations of those species and almost all others remain at or above — far above, in some cases — the long-term average.
Despite this year’s decline in spring estimated populations, redheads, a hugely important duck for Texas waterfowlers as the birds’ main wintering area is along the Texas coast, are at their long-term average. And even with the 6 percent decline in overall duck numbers, seven species are above their 63-year average.
Mallards, the most populous and widespread North American duck, are 19 percent above their long-term average. Gadwall are a whopping 61 percent above their LTA, greenwings are 47 percent above, shovelers 39 percent, canvasback 10 percent, wigeons 8 percent, and bluewings, the secondmost abundant duck, are 6 percent above.
Two duck species — pintail and scaup — are below their long-term average, and both dropped further this year, with pintails falling 4 percent from 2018 and 42 percent below LTA, and scaup taking a 10 percent dip from 2018 and tumbling to 28 percent below their average.
Those numbers are the reason Texas waterfowlers certainly will see a continuation of the 2019-20 season’s one-pintail maximum in the six-duck daily bag limit. And the continued stumbling of the scaup population likely will result next year in a significant reduction in the current three-scaup limit in waterfowlers six-duck bag. Look for a one-scaup bag limit in 2020-21.
Although the survey indicates slightly fewer ducks overall returned to the prairies this year than in 2018, some of those birds may have had a very successful nesting season.
“A lot of prairie Canada was very dry this year, and that’s not great news; prairie Canada is a huge driver for some birds, especially pintails,” said Kevin Kraai, Texas Parks and Wildlife Department waterfowl program leader. “But parts of the northern U.S. — South Dakota especially — saw record wetness. There were some very good conditions in those areas, and the birds took advantage of it.”
Large numbers of pintails opted to try nesting in the wetter, most robust prairies to the south of where they normally concentrate. And the wet areas of the Dakotas are the traditional major nesting region for blue-winged teal.
Anecdotally, ducks appear to have taken advantage of those good conditions — conditions that improved over the spring and though summer instead of deteriorated as they normally do — and pulled off good hatches and allowed hens that lost their first nest to renest.
“Reports I’ve gotten are that production in those areas has been very, very good. I’ve talked to some people (in the Dakotas) who said they’ve never seen so many ducks,” Kraai said. “That’s good news for Texas hunters because we traditionally get a lot of our birds from those areas.”
‘Tale of two summers’
When those birds get to Texas, they likely will find a mixed bag of habitat conditions, a situation caused by the state seeing an unusually wet winter, spring and summer followed by a late summer that, in some crucial areas, has turned very hot and dry.
The extremely wet conditions that began with widespread flooding across much of the state this past September and October helped wintering waterfowl and wetland habitat, with those benefits persisting into summer in some areas.
Coastal prairies and marshes benefited from the freshwater infusion, with some marshes and coastal areas getting good starts on producing crops of submerged aquatic vegetation crucial to supporting wintering waterfowl. And although those wet and generally beneficial conditions continue along the upper coast, things are getting very dry on the central coast prairies and marshes.
“It’s a tale of two summers,” said David Butler, TPWD wetland and waterfowl specialist for the state’s central coast. “It was extremely wet the first part of the year, then about July 4, it was like someone threw a light switch and the rain shut off.”
TPWD’s Justin Hurst Wildlife Management Area near Freeport, a sprawling matrix of coastal marsh and prairie that serves as prime waterfowl habitat, saw only 0.33 inches of rain in July, followed by just 0.31 inches in August through earlier this week.
“It’s just getting very, very dry,” Butler said.
There’s still a couple of months to go before the main push of migrating waterfowl into Texas, and habitat conditions could get better or worse over that period.
As in most years, much of how the 2019-20 waterfowl season goes in Texas likely will hinge on nesting success on the northern prairies and how much good habitat is available when those birds arrive.
If conditions are like last season, when the state was awash and birds had a surfeit of places to find water, food and little or no harassment from hunters, things will be frustrating for waterfowlers.
If it continues dry and hot, it could place a premium on the relatively few places with prime habitat.
Texas waterfowlers will just have to wait to see what kind of table is set for arriving birds, and how many show up for the banquet.
Those questions will be answered over the next couple of months.