Moneyball for Houston?
World Series run can bring up to $9M economic boost per home game
Can the Astros dig out of their 0-2 hole?
The question is front of mind not only for baseball fans, but also for local businesses wondering if this World Series run will provide the kind of windfalls they enjoyed when the Astros won it all in 2017. That’s because the size of their economic boost will depend on the number of games played in Houston, with each game contributing between $6 million and $9 million in economic impact, according to an analysis by Patrick Jankowski, an economist at the Greater Houston Partnership, a business group.
Put another way, local businesses could lose out on as much as $18 million if the Nationals can wrap it up in Washington.
Before Wednesday’s de
bacle for the Astros, economists and business experts were forecasting that this year’s series would be even better for business than the magical year of 2017, in part because Houston would host four games if the series went the full seven, compared with three games when the team beat the Los Angeles Dodgers two years ago. At the same time, the local economy has gained momentum since October 2017, when the region was just beginning its recovery from Hurricane Harvey, putting more money in fans’ pockets to spend on World Series tickets, merchandise, meals and a hotel stay near Minute Maid Park.
“This year’s series has the potential to be at least as notable in terms of economic benefits as 2017 and may well be larger,” said Ray Perryman, an economist at his economic consulting firm, The Perryman Group. “The Astros are becoming something of a sports dynasty.”
One can hope.
An event for the people
A World Series, while a major event for the city, doesn’t offer quite the same bump as a Super Bowl, said Jankowski. Fans have weeks, if not years, to plan their trip to a Super Bowl, but only days to do the same for the World Series. That means a significant share of the economic benefit will come from Houstonians: the people who go out to bars, eat at restaurants, stay at hotels and take Uber rides.
Chad Love, a manager at Kirby Ice House, said nail-biters are good for business. Nerve-wracking games mean that people stick around the bar to watch extra innings, while people leave early if it’s a blowout on either side. Love added that people drink roughly the same amount whether the Astros win or lose.
Louis Galvan, the owner of Irma’s Mexican, prepared for the series by designing a new menu for the playoffs that is shorter and easier for staff to execute as quickly as possible. They also switched to reservations only and added about 50 percent more staff to their new Irma’s Southwest location at 1475 Texas, a block away from Minute Maid Park.
A big benefit to his business this year, he said, is the continued development of downtown. New apartments built since 2017 mean that more downtown residents will contribute to the sales bump. The addition of more restaurants and bars will draw Astros fans to linger downtown before and after the game.
Now, Galvan said, all he needs is for the Astros to win in Washington. “Money-wise, we knocked it out of the park both nights,” he said following the first two games in Houston. “We want to see them do well in the World Series. If they can make it back home for (games) 6 and 7, then that helps.”
Not as emotional
While economists and businesses expect a bigger economic boost this year, some worry the allure has worn off for fair-weather fans who jumped on the Astros bandwagon in 2017, energized by the possibility of history in the making.
“Everyone in the whole country was pulling (for Houston) in 2017,” Galvan said. “It was a little more special.”
TV viewership for the American League Championship Series sequel between the Astros and the New York Yankees declined 11 percent from the 2017 series, which went to seven games versus this year’s six. The championship series ranked as the least-watched ALCS since 2016, according to Sports Media Watch.
The Astros rank in the top 10 in Major League Baseball for fan attendance, according to an ESPN report. But average ticket prices for the World Series are down this year compared with 2017, according to Seat Geek, an online ticket marketplace.
The average resale price for a World Series game on Tuesday was $846, compared with $1,166 for the first game played in Houston in 2017, which was Game 3. Seat Geek has seen higher sales this year than 2017, said company spokesperson Chris Leyden, which could indicate that more people are buying tickets on the platform but valuing the games at a lower price.
Nyla Colston, a manager at Home Plate Bar and Grill located right outside of Minute Maid Park, noted that the playoffs leading up to the World Series weren’t as busy as in 2017 when the restaurant was packed for all of October. But now that the World Series has started, crowds similar to 2017 are packing the bar and restaurant.
On Wednesday, people were lined up waiting for the restaurant to open at 11 a.m. They come early to get seats to watch the game or to pregame before heading to the ballpark.
“It’s an all-day affair,” she said. “All day, all night.”
Houston on the big screen
Airbnb hosts in the Houston area are preparing for nearly 5,500 guests between Oct. 22 and 24, up from 4,200 guests during the 2017 World Series, according to Airbnb. Most of those bookings are from people living in the Houston area, followed by other major Texas cities. That suggests locals — not Nats fans — looking to stay and party near Minute Maid Park will provide most of the estimated $3.2 million boost for Airbnb hosts this week.
While few out-of-towners are likely to travel last minute to the city, experts said, Houston will be in the national spotlight, and not because it’s flooding or there’s another chemical fire. Corporate executives, politicians, conventioneers and families are watching the World Series on their televisions, seeing images of Houston’s glistening downtown skyscrapers and ardent fans packing Minute Maid Park to cheer on the ’Stros. That helps to shift the national narrative of Houston to something more positive, experts said.
“Every time there’s a shot of downtown on TV, it puts a different image in people’s minds than the traditional image of flooding or tumbleweeds,” said Jankowski of the Greater Houston Partnership. “The last thing (people) have on their mind is flooding. I’m hoping the last thing they have on their mind is winning the World series to replace whatever negative image they have of Houston.”