Buzbee’s pugilistic approach to mayoral campaign may backfire

With early voting underway across Texas, there appears to be little suspense about the ultimate outcome of Houston’s mayoral race.

But there’s still plenty of drama, as the race heads into the home stretch. And perhaps there are some takeaways for Texas Republicans nervous about their prospects in 2020, with President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket.

A University of Houston poll, released on the eve of early voting, shows Mayor Sylvester Turner with the support of 43 percent of likely voters, ahead of his closest challenger, millionaire attorney and businessman Tony Buzbee, by 20 points.

And likely low turnout raises the prospect of some unexpected results in this contest or the downballot city council races. Through the first eight days of early voting, just 75,924 Houstonians had cast ballots — compared to nearly 97,558 through the first eight days of early voting in 2015.

Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University’s Baker Institute, thinks Turner could draw enough votes on Election Day to avoid a runoff with the next-highest vote-getter.

“We’re a Democratic city, and Turner has very effectively associated Buzbee with Trump,” Jones explained this week.

That’s certainly true. But Buzbee has helped Turner, a former Democratic state legislator, make that case.

The trial lawyer cast himself, as Trump did, as an anti-establishment outsider whose personal wealth would allow him to remain impervious to the corrupting influence of money in politics.

That was a potentially appealing pitch, especially given the concerns that have been raised about cronyism and a “pay to play” culture at City Hall — including by former Kemah Mayor Bill King, who also is running this year after narrowly losing to Turner in 2015. King is polling in third place this year.

Houston’s rules on contract

ing, specifically, have come under scrutiny as a potential source of temptation. A Houston Chronicle analysis found that Turner has collected at least $4.3 million from companies and donors employed by

companies that conducted business with the city under his administration. That represents 41 percent of the money that Turner has raised in two mayoral campaigns.

Buzbee is probably right to say that Houston could use ethics reform. But voters have cause to doubt whether Buzbee himself

would be determined to deliver the changes the city needs, if elected mayor.

It’s a nonpartisan race, and Buzbee is running as an independent. But his partisan alignment has never been clear. He is a onetime chair of the Galveston Democratic Party, and has a record of donating

to Democrats as well as Republicans, including Turner himself, whose bid for mayor he supported in 2015. In fact, the trial lawyer gave generously to the Harris County Democratic Party in last year’s election cycle.

But Buzbee also hosted a summer 2016 fundraiser for Trump, then the presumptive

Republican nominee, at his River Oaks mansion before donating half a million dollars to his inauguration committee.

And perhaps more to the point, Buzbee’s pugilistic approach to this campaign has undeniably brought to mind the president’s rhetoric and tactics — as well as the downside

risks of the same. His television ads attacking Turner’s record on crime, in particular, elicited backlash from voters who considered them gratuitously lurid, if not frightening, to any children who might have been watching.

This week, moreover, Buzbee was denounced by Dr. Steven Hotze, a social conservative who had endorsed his bid for mayor earlier this fall.

“Tony Buzbee appears to be a liar and a charlatan who will do and say whatever he thinks is necessary to be elected,” Hotze said in a statement.

Hotze explained that the groups he leads — Campaign for Houston and Conservative Republicans of Texas — both withdrew their support from Buzbee after the latter in a recent mayoral forum denied knowing him well, or seeking his endorsement.

Hotze contends that during several meetings, Buzbee claimed to share his perspective on LGBTQ issues — and, more specifically, his opposition to the 2015 HERO ordinance that sought to expand antidiscrimination protections to cover sexual orientation and gender identity. And it’s unlikely that Hotze would have endorsed Buzbee absent some perceived alignment on these issues, or others.

In response, Buzbee conceded that he had met with Hotze more than once, but denied that his initial denial tells us anything.

“I had to be reminded that I met more than once with Mr. Hotze, along with others, and that’s my mistake. I’ll own up to that,” he said in a statement to the Houston Chronicle..

“Of course, I don’t equate a couple of short meetings with knowing someone. And I certainly will not make commitments that go against my strong views,” Buzbee continued.

What those views are remains unclear, though, and that’s a problem for Buzbee heading into the home stretch of this mayor’s race.

A candidate’s personal wealth may allow him to avoid the corrupting influence of money in politics, but politics itself can have a corrupting influence on people.