‘Slugfest’ predicted in mayoral runoff
Turner, Buzbee project confidence but face complacency
Self-funding millionaire lawyer Tony Buzbee on Wednesday said he would spend whatever it takes to unseat Sylvester Turner and predicted a “full-on slugfest” during the fiveweek runoff to decide Houston’s mayoral race.
The runoff will test the effectiveness of Turner’s strategy to portray Buzbee as an acolyte of President Trump — whom Buzbee once supported — against the challenger’s own blueprint of casting himself as a nonpartisan outsider with the chops to improve on Turner’s record handling flood control, infrastructure and crime.
After full election results were published Wednesday morning, Turner wasted no time framing the runoff as a choice between his political record and “a Donald Trump imitator” who Turner said “will say anything, do anything or spend anything to get elected.”
Buzbee, speaking to reporters hours later, said he would not allow Turner to make the election “a referendum on Donald Trump,” promising to instead focus on matters of policy while predicting a “full-on slugfest” up until the Dec. 14 runoff.
“This is a completely new race now,” Buzbee said. “This is Race 2.0. Now, it’s a referendum on what Sylvester Turner has done, or failed to do, and I’m looking forward to making that case.”
To defeat Turner, political observers said, Buzbee will need to broaden his support beyond the base of voters he assembled in the first round. That includes making inroads with leftleaning voters who did not support Turner, a longtime Democrat, along with winning the support of those who cast ballots for Bill King, who competed with Buzbee for conservative support but struggled to match his rival’s self-financed $10 million campaign war chest.
“I think he’ll pick up the majority of the Bill King supporters and he’ll pick up some other folks who were just not happy with the mayor for some reason,” said Nancy Sims, a local political analyst who is not affiliated with either campaign. “It’s a tough path to victory, but in 2015 we saw King come in in a similar position.”
The anti-Turner vote largely coalesced around King — who lost to Turner in a runoff four years ago — and Buzbee, with the two candidates combining for 42 percent of the vote, according to unofficial results that showed Turner at 47 percent, Buzbee at 28 and King at 14. There were 12 candidates on the mayoral ballot, including Councilman Dwight Boykins and former Councilwoman Sue Lovell.
Turner faces his own challenges in securing reelection to a second term. For one, political scientists said, he must persuade enough voters to return to the polls, combating the built-in advantage conservative candidates generally enjoy in low-turnout city runoffs.
“Mayor Turner’s biggest enemy in the runoff is not Tony Buzbee, but complacency,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. “But I don’t know if it’s a major problem, because he has such a strong and sophisticated campaign machine.”
Potentially boosting Turner’s chances, Rottinghaus and Sims said, are a host of city council runoffs in districts that went heavily to Turner in the first leg of the election.
Turner won a majority of the vote in districts B and D, and a plurality of the vote in C, F, H and J, all of which will be decided by runoffs. Across the six districts combined, Turner received 55 percent of the vote, to Buzbee’s 21 percent share.
Buzbee’s strongest districts, E and G, were decided without runoffs Tuesday. He won a plurality of the vote in District A, the lone remaining runoff district, receiving 39 percent to Turner’s 36 percent.
“I think the city council races that are in runoffs are going to determine a lot of voter turnout,” Sims said. “And very clearly, the city council district races that have runoffs favor Turner.”
Campaign funding
Perhaps the most critical question heading into the runoff is how much more money Buzbee will pump into his campaign, which he had funded with $10 million through late October. By that point, he maintained $1.3 million cash on hand, compared to Turner’s $787,000 sum.
The start of the runoff renews the city campaign contribution limits, meaning donors who had contributed the maximum $5,000, or political action committees who maxed out at $10,000, can contribute to Turner’s campaign anew.
On Wednesday, Buzbee declined to say how much more he would contribute to his campaign account, saying only that he would spend “whatever it takes to beat a corrupt politician.” Pressed to give a dollar figure, Buzbee said he had not yet considered the amount.
“I think Turner will have to work very hard and raise additional money,” Sims said. “Buzbee outspent him 3-to-1 in the first round, and I can’t imagine he would get this far and then stop investing. So, I would expect it to continue.”
Turner, on election night and again Wednesday, framed the election result as a victory, despite falling short of an outright win, by pointing to Buzbee’s record spending levels.
“No candidate in the history of this city has had to undertake a barrage of negative ads of $10 million or more,” Turner said Tuesday evening. “No one. That amount of money has never been spent in a municipal election in this city and I don’t know too many candidates who could have withstood that type of barrage of negative stuff.”
Endorsements
The runoff is familiar territory for Turner, who defeated King by 2 percent in the 2015 December contest. This year, however, Buzbee will have to make up significantly more ground than King, who trailed Turner 31 percent to 26 percent four years ago — a far different result than Turner’s 18-point edge over Buzbee.
Speaking to reporters Wednesday, Buzbee acknowledged the need to scoop up support from voters who backed King and Boykins, who finished in fourth place and was backed by the firefighters union. Buzbee said he is “looking for (Boykins’) support,” along with the backing of the firefighters.
“I’m going to be seeking that endorsement, and I certainly would welcome that endorsement,” Buzbee said.
Marty Lancton, president of the Houston Professional Fire Fighters Association, made clear in a statement Wednesday that the firefighters union would get involved in city runoffs, though he declined to say more about how the union would approach the mayor’s race.
“Making City Hall accountable and fixing the fire department remain our priorities,” Lancton said. “We’ll find a way forward to help do that. Our political work is not done in 2019.”
Boykins and King did not respond to phone and text inquiries about their endorsement plans. Lovell said she would not endorse Turner, and “beyond that I haven’t had conversations with anyone else.”