CFP picture muddled after top teams lose over weekend
Alabama and Penn State lost. Baylor and Oklahoma escaped with wins over lesser opponents. Minnesota turned heads, and Clemson continued to take care of business.
It was an eventful weekend in college football. And with the possibility of more surprises, it’s still impossible to say with certainty which four teams will end up in the College Football Playoff.
And that makes the season all the more entertaining.
When the new CFP rankings are released Tuesday, Alabama might well be out of the top four for the first time since the playoff system was implemented six years ago. The Crimson Tide’s first loss of the season — a 46-41 thriller against LSU — has, at least for the moment, taken their playoff destiny out of their hands.
Alabama (8-1) has a minuscule chance of winning the Southeastern
Conference now. The Tide would have to win out, and LSU (9-0) would have to lose two of its final three games — against Mississippi (4-6), Arkansas (2-8) and Texas A&M (6-3) — just to put Bama in the SEC Championship Game.
Only three teams have made the College Football Playoff without winning a conference championship: Alabama in 2017 (when it beat Georgia for the national championship), Ohio State in 2016 and Notre Dame, an undefeated independent, in 2018.
It’s that 2017 scenario that still offers Alabama hope of playing in
the championship game for the fifth consecutive season. The Tide lost to Auburn that year but snuck into the CFP as the No. 4 team after the Tigers lost to Georgia in the SEC title game.
One thing working against Alabama this year is its schedule. None of its wins this year came against a ranked team, and it might be hard for the Tide to justify themselves as a top-four squad with a remaining schedule of Mississippi State (4-5), Western Carolina (3-7) and Auburn (7-2). Alabama shouldn’t be in the playoff if it couldn’t conquer the one major challenge it has faced this season.
As one of five remaining unbeaten teams, Ohio State is safe in the top four after beating Maryland 73-14, but the Buckeyes likely will relinquish the No. 1 spot to LSU.
After its loss to Minnesota, Penn State, like Alabama, figures to fall out of the top four. And at 9-0, the Gophers need to be in the conversation. They’re not likely to jump all the way in from their No. 17 position of a week ago, but with two ranked opponents remaining (Iowa and Wisconsin), they can keep working their way up.
Still, Minnesota seemingly would run into Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game if it beats Wisconsin. The big question in the Big Ten: If both Ohio State and Minnesota went into the title game unbeaten, could the loser still crack the CFP?
A similar question might be posed in the SEC. If a one-loss Georgia team beat an unbeaten LSU in the championship game, could both make the playoff ? If there are no more than two undefeated teams left, the odds aren’t bad.
Defending national
champion Clemson, fifth in last week’s inital CFP rankings, figures to get into the top four this week. At 10-0, the Tigers already have clinched a spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game and might have the path of least resistance to an undefeated season. Wake Forest (7-2) and South Carolina (4-6) are their last regular-season opponents.
In the Big 12, Baylor (9-0) and Oklahoma (8-1) kept things interesting by winning Saturday in advance of their meeting in Waco this weekend. But neither looked particularly impressive.
Baylor needed a 51-yard field goal at the end of regulation and three overtimes to prevail at TCU 29-23. Oklahoma barely held off Iowa State 42-41 in a game that exposed a lot of holes in the Sooners’ defense.
It’s hard to picture either being good enough to make it in the top four, but either could. After Saturday’s showdown, Baylor still has Texas and Kansas on its schedule. Oklahoma will have TCU and Oklahoma State remaining.
Should they manage to stay unbeaten all the way through the Big 12 Championship Game, the Bears would have a difficult-to-argue playoff case. They’d be one of a maximum four undefeated teams (LSU, Clemson and the Big Ten champ being the others).
If Oklahoma wins out, the committee would have to decide if it is the best one-loss team left. Others might include Penn State or, yes, Alabama.
But we know in that scenario the Sooners would have a conference championship to their credit. Meaning it might then come down to them or a one-loss Pac 12 champ. Oregon (9-1) and Utah (9-1) can’t be counted out yet.
Needless to say, a lot is up in the air, filling the next few weeks of college football with plenty of intrigue.
And as this past weekend illustrated, nothing is a given.