Winter of decisions looms for Luhnow
Expect few finalities when Jeff Luhnow and baseball’s 29 other general managers gather for their annual meetings this week in Scottsdale, Ariz.
If last winter was any indication, the offseason will move at a glacial pace, producing an uneventful week before another in San Diego during the winter meetings in December.
Both gatherings now seem more like foundation-laying endeavors. Teams in search of free agent help can have initial discussions with player representatives. Trade seekers can connect and discuss early parameters. Deals are not done until later. Luhnow and his small group of front-office lieutenants have adhered to a schedule in the past.
Last year, the Astros’ free agent deals with Michael Brantley and Wade Miley did not arrive until long after the winter meetings concluded. Two winters ago, Houston did not trade for Gerrit Cole until January. Conversations during the general manager meetings started some of the traction.
When he arrives in Arizona on Monday, Luhnow must lay groundwork for one of the most vital winters of his eight-year tenure, one with a burgeoning payroll and the most sought-after free agent set to depart his clubhouse.
Houston returns a championship-ready core. Filling in the few vacancies, with an inflexible payroll approaching the luxury tax threshold, falls to the 53-year-old executive.
“There’s not unlimited spending potential for at least most
We’re one that has limits,” Luhnow said after Game 7 of the World Series. “We have to spend wisely. That’s part of the front office’s job, and we’ve done that in the past. We’ve been reaching all-time payroll highs every year for the past four or five years and that will probably continue next year.”
No one will confuse Luhnow for a big spender in the free agent market. He’s resigned one departing free agent since taking over the Astros in 2011. Another accepted a qualifying offer.
The most expensive free agent deal of Luhnow’s tenure remains the four-year, $52 million contract given to Josh Reddick in 2017. Scott Feldman’s three-year deal in 2013 was the longest he’s committed to any free
agent pitcher. Nothing about the Astros’ current situation — both financially and on the field — indicates that will change this winter.
Houston returns eight of its nine everyday position players and 253 of its franchise-record 288 home runs. Their starting rotation will be fronted by Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna will close games. The team is not short on well-compensated stars.
More urgent needs are marginal but plentiful.
The Astros have one catcher with major league experience — all of 39 plate appearances — on their 40man roster. Four of their middle relievers left for free agency. Though Lance McCullers Jr. is returning from Tommy John surgery and Jose Urquidy was remarkable in the postseason, it’s impossible to project what
either will provide in the back of the starting rotation, one which must either replace Cole’s otherworldly production or bring in more than one pitcher — be it from free agency or the minor leagues — who can.
Owner Jim Crane said last week the team will “make a run” at re-signing Cole, who could command the biggest contract for a starting pitcher in major league history.
Crane said before the postseason he’d prefer not to exceed the sport’s competitive balance tax. Last week, however, he acknowledged that “it’s a possibility.” Envisioning a way the Astros do not exceed the $208 million total payroll — even without re-signing Cole — is difficult. Signing Cole to the sort of contract he will merit will certainly put them over.
According to Spotrac, the Astros have
committed to their 2020 payroll. The figure does not include their 10 arbitration-eligible players, who MLBTradeRumors projects Houston will pay a combined $62.2 million. That’s $207,683,333 — before Luhnow adds any help to his barren bullpen, unsettled back of the rotation and empty catching corps.
Teams that cross the competitive balance tax for the first time — like the Astros are primed to do — must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages.
Along with the alreadyexploding payroll, Luhnow must take into account that his entire outfield is slated for free agency following next season. An extension for George Springer, whom MLBTradeRumors predicts to make $21.2 million in his final year of arbitration, would seem logical and follow the front office’s recent offseason moves. Jose Alteams.
tuve received an extension two years. Pressly, Verlander and Alex Bregman were all recipients last year.
“How we allocate those resources is something that we spend a lot of time thinking about and how we commit resources for the future, as well,” Luhnow said. “Because committing resources for 2025 right now comes with a lot of risk. We’re going to do all of that analysis. We’re going to be negotiating hard to try and figure out how we use the resources we have.”
Luhnow has opted to execute some of the franchise’s most transformative trades to offset his frugality in free agency.
Whether Luhnow decreases his outfield surplus on the trade market is a legitimate question. Given Kyle Tucker and Myles Straw’s body of work in their big league exposure, Reddick and backup out$145,483,333
fielder Jake Marisnick are the most obvious targets. Reddick’s $13 million salary will be difficult to shop, especially after two subpar offensive seasons.
The toll of those has left Houston’s farm system in the middle of most rankings it once topped. Baseball America ranks the Astros’ minor league system 15th out of 30 teams.
Major league ready prospects — for either the Astros or teams they may engage in trade talks — are not as abundant as earlier in Luhnow’s tenure. The problem is good to have, and it’s one that’s helped Houston win 100 or more games in three straight seasons and capture two of the last three American League pennants.
Sustaining it responsibly is Luhnow’s next venture.