Luhnow searching for multiple starters
Top prospects are a possibility to fill back of rotation; catching, middle relief needed
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — The Astros can find comfort atop their 2020 starting rotation. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke are future Hall of Famers defying age to anchor a staff that is primed for seismic changes.
Behind those two certainties are almost no absolutes, a reality the Astros must confront this winter. Though his team urgently requires a catcher and middle relief, general manager Jeff Luhnow seems concentrated on another truth.
“We’re looking for multiple players, whether it’s internally or externally, that can give us innings in a rotation,” Luhnow said at the general manager’s meetings. “Typically, it’s eight or nine guys competing for five spots. Right now, we need to build that list.”
Eighty starts from the 2019 season departed to free agency. Assuming the Astros non-tender Aaron Sanchez, their trade deadline acquisition who underwent major shoulder surgery in September, and four more will disappear. That’s 84 of 162 games.
That it is an absurd amount of appearances is not uncommon. Houston had to replace 500 innings from its starting rotation last offseason. Luhnow responded with one external move, signing Wade Miley to a one-year deal.
Instead of seeking more veteran help, Luhnow assumed a mixture of heralded prospects and fringe former starters could cover the fourth and fifth spots. Assumed fourth starter Collin McHugh endured an excruciating, injury-riddled final Astros season. Brad Peacock won the fifth spot in spring training but missed most of the second half of the season with neck and shoulder problems. Josh James was injured in spring, removing him from starting contention. Framber Valdez was an unmitigated disaster.
The plan backfired. Early indications suggest Luhnow will not repeat the tactic. He said more than one veteran starter will be ideal.
“I’d prefer to have two because more options is better,” Luhnow said. “But it’s going to come down to what we can actually get done and what our value proposition is. Teams see our roster, players see our roster and try and go where they’re going to slot in. Sometimes we give a guarantee they’re going to be in the rotation and other times they’re going to fight for it.”
Luhnow met with members of Scott Boras’ agency — the one that represents Gerrit Cole — at the GM meetings. Miley’s representatives met with the Astros as well, but such meetings are expected at this event, one that teams use to lay the foundation for future moves.
Luhnow’s history does not suggest he will give a long-term deal, the sort sought by Cole or Zack Wheeler. That he also must reinforce his bullpen and add catching, all with a payroll approaching the luxury tax, creates another wrinkle.
The longest free-agent deal to a starting pitcher under Luhnow was Scott Feldman’s three-year contract in 2013. More recently, he’s been privy to short-term deals with Miley, Charlie Morton (two years) and, most recently, a twoyear extension with Verlander.
“In general, the more flexibility we give ourselves in the future, the better off we’re going to be as an organization,” Luhnow said.
“That’s always been our guiding principle with how we operate. That being said, there are certain players that can’t be acquired on a short-term deal.
“We have to make a decision at some point: are we willing to go longer than we normally go in order to have a certain talent on our team? Those are decisions we have to think about, talk about and ultimately make.”
Though Houston can proceed to spring training with two penciled-in starters behind Verlander and Greinke, the uncertainty both provide is not ideal. Realistic expectations for both Lance McCullers Jr. and José Urquidy are difficult to gauge.
McCullers underwent Tommy John surgery last November. Earlier this month, he completed his rehabilitation and proclaimed himself ready for spring training. The Astros have no qualms he will be. What he can actually lend to the regular-season rotation is another matter entirely.
Pitchers who return from Tommy John surgery often adhere to innings limits in their first season back. McCullers will be no different. Bear in mind, too, the 26-yearold curveball connoisseur has never thrown more than 125 innings in any of his four major league seasons.
“I think we would be thrilled if he pitched a complete season, and we’re going to have to maybe figure out a way to give him some breaks throughout the season,” Luhnow said.
“I don’t think 200 innings is realistic. Is somewhere between 100 and 150 realistic, and will he be available to pitch in October if we need him to? I hope so. A lot of that will depend on how he’s feeling and how he’s responding.”
Urquidy underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017. He blew through the team’s prescribed innings limit last season, staging a breakout season that culminated with a World Series win in Game 4. Still, he will be a rookie with just 41 major league innings to his credit.
Options to fill in if either is ineffective exist. Top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley will be given “every opportunity” to make the team out of spring training. Bryan Abreu is viewed as a starter. Cristian Javier is an intriguing minor league prospect.
It’s early, but James will report to camp as a starter, too.
“He’s likely on the team in one capacity or another,” Luhnow said. “Maybe some of that depends on how much success we have finding starters on the free agent market (or) minor league invites.”