Summer may set power records
Forecast: State’s electricity usage likely to surge
Texas will likely use a record amount of electricity this summer, as warmer weather drives demand instead of an economy weakened by the coronavirus pandemic.
The state’s grid manager, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, said the state should have enough power supply under normal operating conditions this summer but that residents should be prepared to take voluntary conservation measures if grid conditions deteriorate. In previous years, the state’s power grid has been stressed by extreme weather that drives the use of air conditioning, low wind speeds that reduce the amount of wind-generated power and outages at power generating facilities that decrease supply.
The grid manager last year twice asked consumers to turn up their thermostats and reduce the use of electric-powered appliances when supplies dropped dangerously low during a
heat wave.
ERCOT determines how much power the state needs by calculating peak power demand, the moment in time — usually on a hot summer afternoon — when every air conditioner is running constantly. Texas set a record Aug. 12, when the state used 74,820 megawatts of power. One megawatt is enough to power about 200 homes during a hot summer day in Texas.
ERCOT expected that a growing economy would further boost electricity demand in 2020. But that changed when businesses closed and people began to stay home in an effort to halt the spread of the coronavirus.
Weekly electricity use in Texas dipped 3 to 4 percent during the first week of May, according to ERCOT. For several weeks, morning use of electricity is as much as 10 percent lower than normal.
On Wednesday, ERCOT reduced its forecast for peak power demand by 1,496 megawatts to 75,200 megawatts. Texas also added more capacity from new wind, solar and battery storage projects.
ERCOT’s new forecast provides a more comfortable cushion of power supplies heading into summer with the so-called reserve margin increasing to 12.6 percent from 10.6 percent. ERCOT has a target reserve margin of 13.75 percent.
A year ago the reserve margin was 8.6 percent, creating a tight supply of electricity and driving prices repeatedly to $9,000 a megawatt hour, the state’s maximum price.
ERCOT’s summer forecast predicts above-normal temperatures for most, if not all, of Texas, according to senior meteorologist Chris Coleman.
June is shaping up to be hotter than normal and could be one of the hottest in years, Coleman said in his report. September also is showing above-normal potential for high temperatures. The forecast for July and August isn’t as certain.
Overall, the summer of 2020 in Texas may rank as one of the hottest on record, ERCOT said. But it’s unlikely to surpass the temperatures of last summer, the fourth-hottest summer in Texas in 125 years.