Virus will add risk to a busy hurricane season
Chance of infection may complicate rescues, sheltering
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is poised to become the fifth consecutive year for abovenormal activity, but this time the high winds and heavy rains could be compounded by a global pandemic.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday forecast 13 to 19 named storms for the season that starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30. Of these, six to 10 storms could become hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph, including three to six major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph, classifying them as Category 3, 4 or 5.
On Saturday, Tropical Storm Arthur became the first named storm of the year, well ahead of the start of the season.
“The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be a busy one,” Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said Thursday during a news conference.
Bell said the Atlantic has been in a high-activity era since 1995, largely due to a warm phase of surface temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean. The sea’s surface temperature has cool and warm phases that may last 20 to 40
years, a natural occurrence that has been happening for at least 1,000 years. During a warm phase, more tropical storms mature into severe hurricanes.
Also this year El Niño, which helps suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic, is not active; and there is potential for La Niña, which can enhance hurricane activity in the Atlantic, Bell said.
The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season produced 18 named storms. Of those, six were hurricanes and three were major (Category 3 or above) hurricanes.
Bell said five consecutive above normal years would be a record( an average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes,) and that now is the time to prepare.
“Having a sound plan is especially true this year given the need to stay safely away from the coronavirus,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross during the news conference.
Phil Bedient, director of the Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disasters Center at Rice University, said the Houston region tends to receive a direct hurricane hit every 12 to 15 years. Its last direct hit was Hurricane Ike in 2008. Hurricane Harvey, while a devastating disaster and major flooding event for Houston, made landfall closer to Corpus Christi and then traveled to the Houston region.
But he hopes Houston won’t get hit this year. Bedient said responding to a hurricane amid the pandemic would be “nightmarish.”
First responders, not knowing if they’re rescuing people who have COVID-19, would have to navigate high waters in protective gear. That raises the next question — do they test people for COVID-19 in the middle of a flooded neighborhood? Bringing just one or two infected people to a shelter could create a hot spot. And there would have to be more shelters to give people adequate social distancing space.
“It’s just going to compound the difficulty of responding to a disaster,” Bedient said.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency is preparing to handle a major hurricane and COVID-19, said Carlos Castillo, FEMA’s acting deputy administrator for resilience.
“This year will not be the first time that FEMA has managed more than one large disaster at the same time,” Castillo said.
Already, FEMA has responded to tornadoes in the Southeast during this pandemic. Castillo said the agency has the necessary workers, water and shelf-stable meals, and money in its disaster relief fund for financial reimbursements.
If a storm requires evacuation, Castillo recommends staying with friends or family outside the evacuation zone rather than in a shelter. Families forced to go to a shelter should come ready with their own cleaning supplies.
And they should starting making plans now.
“During this time when many families are under stay-at-home orders, it is a great opportunity to prepare for any disaster they may face in their community,” Castillo said, “and plan how to respond to disasters in the COVID environment.”