States don’t need new lockdowns to cut COVID-19 spread
Whether you call it a second wave or, more accurately, the easily foreseeable continuation of a pandemic, COVID-19 is still spreading unchecked in several American states. Florida, Arizona, Texas and other states are reporting record numbers of new cases. And many are neglecting to take steps that could prevent outbreaks from expanding into possibly unmanageable surges in COVID-19 cases and deaths.
State leaders understandably resist the notion of issuing new stay-at-home orders, which would be painful, unpopular and at this point difficult to enforce. Lockdowns averted millions of potential cases in the spring, and they may still be required if case growth gets out of hand. But blunt quarantine isn’t the only way to check COVID-19. Over the past several months, scientists worldwide have come to better understand how infections occur and what specific measures can most effectively prevent them. States can and should pay attention to what the experts have learned and use it to steer public behavior toward safety.
In Texas and Arizona, current hospitalizations are ticking up. While governors are keen to note that hospitals have spare capacity, that advantage could disappear quickly. Hospital beds fill up faster than they empty, and COVID-19 doesn’t strike according to where beds are available. Also, as more beds and hospital staff must be devoted to COVID, other care gets pushed aside, with damaging results.
Governors should understand that they can lower their case rates without locking down their economies if they pay attention to what experts have observed about COVID-19 contagion: Wellspaced outdoor activities appear to pose little risk. People don’t seem to easily pick up the virus from food or surfaces that others have touched. But the disease spreads readily among people who engage in prolonged close contact in crowded and poorly ventilated spaces.
It’s possible to limit transmission by restricting crowds and calling for social distancing indoors. People who stand just a little over 3 feet away from others stand a drastically lower chance of infection than those who get closer, and the risk decreases further with greater distance.
Widespread use of masks in high-risk situations reduces the risk of infection still more. Mask mandates in 15 states may have prevented as many as 450,000 COVID cases in the U.S., a recent study reported in Health Affairs found.
Most states, including those seeing rising case counts, recommend social distancing and maintain some capacity limits on retail businesses. But widespread reports of careless behavior and renewed case growth suggest that either the rules are too lax or people just aren’t following them. Clearly, it’s not enough to merely ask people to protect themselves. It takes effort and consistent communication to shift behavior enough to change transmission dynamics.
Covering your face before entering a grocery store is properly viewed as an easy way to protect yourself and others. Unfortunately, neglecting this basic human courtesy has become a form of protest against government overreach.
State leaders can and should try to discourage such protest — including by broadly mandating mask-wearing. Governors still dragging their feet on mask use seem not to care as much as they need to about saving lives. In the face of the country’s worst new COVID outbreak, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey has finally allowed local officials to require masks, but he’s still leaving policy up to individual communities. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott now allows local mask mandates, but only if officials impose them indirectly by placing rules on businesses, not people.
There are many ways in which state leaders can steer people toward safer behavior, bend their COVID-19 curves downward and strengthen their economies. It’s simply a matter of paying attention to how the coronavirus spreads.