Tropical system may aim at Texas

A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and its current trajectory has it approaching Texas early next week.

Tropical Depression 14 is expected to cause tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, and it could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatán Peninsula late Saturday. It’s expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center’s update on Thursday afternoon.

The Mexican government on Thursday issued a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning for portions of the eastern Yucatán Peninsula from Punta Herrero to Cancun.

The National Weather Service's Houston/Galveston office said in its forecast that the most likely landfall locations would be along the Texas or Louisiana coasts as a tropical storm around Tuesday.

As of Thursday at 10 p.m. CDT, maximum sustained winds were reported to be near 35 mph, with higher gusts.

Meanwhile, another tropical depression is also moving toward the Gulf. Tropical Depression 13 is more of a threat to Florida and the northeast Gulf states, forecasters said. It is forecast to become a hurricane. Both storms will likely be in the Gulf of Mexico early next week, NWS said.

Historically, storms that move between the Yucatán Peninsula —

which has parts of Mexico, Belize and Guatemala — and Cuba have a higher likelihood of coming toward Texas, said Jim Blackburn, codirector of the Severe Storm Prediction, Education and

Evacuation from Disasters Center at Rice University, in a recent interview with the Chronicle. He’s heard it referred to as the slot for storms coming to Texas.

This hurricane season, as of Thursday afternoon, has created 11 named storms. The average hurricane season ( June 1 through Nov. 30) has 12 named storms.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting 19 to 25 named storms for the season that ends Nov. 30. Of these, seven to 11 could become hurricanes including three to six major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.