Laura overshadows Marco as storms head toward Gulf Coast
TROPIC TROUBLE: Forecasts show landfalls in La., but uncertainty still remains
Tropical Storm Laura edged out Marco as the bigger threat to Houston on Sunday, with forecasts suggesting the second storm approaching the Gulf of Mexico could bring 100 mph winds to the region.
Marco strengthened to a hurricane on Sunday and weakened back to a tropical storm by 10 p.m. It is expected to approach southeast Louisiana on Monday before turning left and moving along the coast. Forecasters predict a significantly weakened system reaching the Houston area Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. It’s expected to bring some increased surf.
It’s the weather coming later on Wednesday that’s more worrisome. Tropical Storm Laura is expected to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane. However, the National Hurricane Center’s Sunday night update had the storm’s center making landfall
near the central Louisiana coast, farther east than earlier forecast models.
“We’re not anticipating many impacts from Marco because it will be weakening,” said Jimmy Fowler, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Houston/Galveston office. “Right now, Laura is the main concern.”
He emphasized there is still uncertainty in both forecasts, but particularly with Laura.
The last hurricane to make landfall in the Houston area was Ike in 2008.
A Category 2 storm — almost a Category 3, as its winds were 110 mph — Hurricane Ike damaged roofs and caused roughly 15 to 20 feet of storm surge on Bolivar Peninsula and in parts of Chambers County. Galveston Island had some 10 to 15 feet of storm surge.
Dan Reilly, warning coordination meteorologist for NWS Houston/Galveston, was reluctant to compare Laura to Ike during a webinar on Sunday afternoon. But he did note that areas at risk for storm surge this week — a large portion of the coast could receive more than 9 feet of water — were the areas affected by Ike.
“Even though it looks like a lot of water, it is realistic to think in these terms if we were to get a direct hit from a strong Category 2 storm,” Reilly said in his presentation.
Hurricane Ike caused $12.5 billion in insured property losses ($20.9 billion when adjusted for inflation through 2019) across multiple states, excluding flood damage covered by the National Flood Insurance Program, according to the Insurance Information Institute.
A 2009 report from the National Hurricane Center said total damage could have been $29.5 billion.
And in the 12 years since this storm, the Houston area has not made significant strides in coastal defense, said Phil Bedient, director of the Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disasters Center at Rice University.
“Very little has been done,” Bedient said. “Lots of studies, but very little has actually been done to help protect Galveston, Houston and the Houston Ship Channel.”
Hurricane Harvey, marking its third anniversary this week, came ashore near Corpus Christi and brought heavy rainfall to the Houston area rather than storm surge. It caused $18 billion to $20 billion in insured losses ($18.8 billion to $20.8 billion in 2019 dollars) across multiple states, according to the Insurance Information Institute.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated that Harvey’s overall costs were $125 billion.
Tropical Storm Laura is not expected to stall like Harvey did. It could drop 5 to 10 inches of rain, mostly east of Interstate 45. That’s significantly less than Hurricane Harvey, which had rainfall totals between 35 inches and 60 inches, though Reilly said some flooding might still occur.
“Five to 10 inches of rain can be significant if it comes down very quickly,” he said.
Should the storm barrel into Louisiana, then Southeast Texas might see slightly less severe impacts by virtue of being on the western side of the system, said Amaryllis Cotto, a meteorologist with NWS Houston/Galveston.
“If you divide the system into four parts, the strongest side of the storm is the northeastern side,” Cotto said. “If you’re on the southwestern side, that’s considered the weaker side.”
Gov. Greg Abbott on Sunday declared a state of disaster in 23 counties, including Harris, Galveston, Chambers and Brazoria.
He also is asking President Donald Trump to declare a federal emergency in the 23 counties, a move that would help with staging and sheltering.
Texas preparing
In preparation for the storms, officials are activating rescue personnel and vehicles along the coast. The state is also adapting two COVID-19 medical facilities — one in San Antonio and one north of Houston — into shelters for evacuees who need care.
Abbott, speaking at an Austin news conference Sunday with Texas Division of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd, stressed that Texans should remember to social distance and wear masks during the emergency response, even if they must relocate.
“As we continue to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, we are fully prepared to respond to the oncoming hurricanes,” Abbott said.
At the Galveston Yacht Basin, Laurence Wall, a surveyor who lives on the island, was struggling to stuff the front sail of his sailboat into a hatch on Sunday.
His general rule of thumb for preparing a boat for an impending hurricane is to remove anything that can be damaged by wind and keep enough slack on the lines to allow for the tide to rise as high as 5 feet. As far as evacuating, he said he won’t leave the island for a Category 2. Stronger than that, though, and he would evacuate.
A few boats down from Wall’s on the same marina slip, Chris Huslage and two of his sons were also removing “windage” from the deck of their sailboat. Huslage owns a plumbing company in Austin and recently moved his family — a wife and four kids — to Galveston to live on the boat. Laura or Marco would be their first hurricane since purchasing the 54-foot sailboat, and they are prepared to truly put to the test how comfortable they are living in a confined space. They plan on riding out a storm below deck while the boat is either docked in Galveston or farther north in Seabrook.
“We’re staying on the boat,” Huslage said. “We’re not gonna sink. Worst-case scenario is we get beat up, in which case, it is what it is. That’s what you have insurance for. You do your best to be as safe as possible, so we’ll have extra dock lines out.”
‘Please pay attention’
Mark Henry, the Galveston County judge, held a news conference Sunday at the county’s emergency management headquarters warning coastal residents not to let their guard down.
While the storm’s forecast in the coming days will ultimately guide any emergency management decisions, Henry said Bolivar Peninsula’s fate could be a catalyst, noting that if ferry service to the peninsula gets cut off due to weather conditions, he may have no choice but to at least call for a voluntary evacuation.
“The forecaster told me he’s not seen this kind of disagreement among forecast models in 30 years, so that’s how erratic (Laura) is,” Henry said. “So we’re just telling people: Please pay attention. It’s going to be bad somewhere.”