Keep COVID cases going down and the economy going up
Congratulations, the COVID-19 numbers are looking encouraging now that people are wearing masks, bars are closed, and most people recognize the threat.
Our public health system, admittedly, still struggles to test as broadly as needed, and the positivity rate remains higher than we want. But infections, hospitalizations and deaths have declined since mid-July, and for that, we should be grateful.
But can we keep it that way, and in so doing, protect our pocketbooks?
Striking the right balance between revving the economy and protecting the public is at the root of our current national divide.
The toll of April’s shutdown prompted President Donald Trump and many state and local leaders to prematurely reopen businesses. The death toll popped, but a CBS/YouGov poll this week found that while 90 percent of Democrats say the fatalities from COVID-19 are too high, 57 percent of Re
publicans think it’s been acceptable.
Current projections predict 300,000 Americans will die by December, and the disease will become the third leading cause of death for 2020 after heart disease and cancer. Whether Republican acceptance of the death rate will decline as the body count doubles is an interesting question.
One certainty, though, is that shutting down the economy a second time is off the table. Former Vice President Joe Biden’s suggestion that he would lock down the country if scientists made the recommendation is a fantasy intended to appease Democratic Party worrywarts.
Polls show most Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, but no one is marching in the streets demanding a different approach. Any new shutdown would almost certainly trigger conservatives to stage widespread, armed protests like those we saw earlier this summer.
Many small businesses would likely remain open, daring authorities to shut them down, like the Dallas salon owner who defied Gov. Greg Abbott’s order in May.
Experts also are questioning whether such one-size-fits-all closures do more harm than good, according to an insightful piece by Wall Street Journal columnist Greg Ip. A scalpel is always more precise and efficient than a machete if you know where and how to cut.
The world has learned a lot about the coronavirus since it emerged in December, and through often painful experimentation, we have made some critical conclusions. With a little vigilance, we can strike a more reasonable path in addressing the disease and supporting the economy.
We now know crowded, enclosed spaces are where the virus spreads the fastest. Whether it is a multigenerational apartment in Wuhan, a dance club in Seoul, a café in Italy or a bar in Houston, these are the places where the virus can literally go from one person to 24 in a few hours.
We now know 40 percent of the infected show no symptoms yet spread the disease like wildfire. Because most asymptomatic people do not know they are carriers, we ask people to wear masks when they enter public spaces to push their viral particles down and away from other people’s noses.
We are also learning that when we let our guard down, the coronavirus bounces back quickly.
U.S. cases spiked in early April and receded thanks to the lockdown. But when Americans went out for Memorial Day celebrations, infections spread with a vengeance, peaking in late July.
For a hint of what will happen as people move indoors, return to work, start school and resume normal activities this fall, Spain offers a cautionary tale.
COVID-19 devastated the Iberian Peninsula in March, and the government ordered one of the most draconian lockdowns ever seen in a democracy. The strategy worked, and new cases dropped to an all-time low of 279 a week in June. This week, Spain is averaging 6,622 new cases.
Maintaining vigilance is hard. Sustaining unpopular restrictions requires courage. Slowing the spread of COVID-19 is costly. Some people will suffer more than others.
Texas bar owners desperately need to reopen to save their businesses from bankruptcy. Hotels need to resume their convention businesses to pay off mortgages. Movie theaters need people to sit together with strangers for 90 minutes at a time. Their employees need their jobs back.
I want to attend a conference, eat popcorn in a theater and drink in a bar. But I know the virus is still out there. If we reopen too quickly, the death rate will go up. If we don’t reopen, the bankruptcy rate will.
The COVID-19 pandemic is far from over. The best thing we can do for the economy and each other is to act responsibly, stay healthy and help businesses that must remain closed. The virus is not giving us many choices, other than how many people and which businesses we are willing to sacrifice for the greater good.