Complicating COVID-19 picture is decline in testing as 200,000 deaths loom in U.S.
The U.S. will top 200,000 deaths from the novel coronavirus in coming days, a devastating milestone that comes eight months after the pathogen was first confirmed on American soil.
The U.S., with 4 percent of the world’s population, accounts for 21 percent of global coronavirus deaths. The disparity underscores America’s failure to contain a virus that blazed through populous states such as Texas, and Florida this summer despite predictions that warmer weather could bring a respite.
With a population of 330 million, the U.S. reached 100,000 COVID-19 deaths on May 27, four months after the first recorded case. It has taken another four months to near 200,000, a number roughly equal to the population of Yonkers, N.Y., or Huntsville, Ala. Brazil ranks second in deaths, with more than 134,000 in a nation of 210 million.
Data show U.S. virus deaths have occurred disproportionately among people in at-risk categories, including individuals age 65 and older, people of color and those with other health conditions. Deaths also have been concentrated in certain parts of the country, with more than 70 percent reported in only 12 states, including New York, New Jersey, Texas, California and Florida, according to a Bloomberg analysis of Johns Hopkins University data.
Reaching 200,000 fatalities is “a reflection of just how extensive the transmission of this virus has been in this country and how ineffective our public health approach has been to containing and stopping the spread,” said Josh Michaud, associate director for global health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, an independent nonprofit.
It is almost certainly an undercount of the true human toll of the pandemic, since not all virus cases are likely captured in official counts. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention figures show that 201,917 to 262,877 more people have died in the U.S. since February than historical trends would predict, although not all are attributable to COVID-19.
Experts warn that conditions are ripe for further spread, with schools, universities and more workplaces reopening and cooling temperatures likely to push more socializing indoors. One prediction, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, expects there could be 415,090 COVID-19 deaths by year-end.
“I worry we’re at the calm before the storm,” said Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “We’re about to have a really big question answered, and that is: What’s going to happen when the weather turns cold again, when we enter the fall and winter months?”
Complicating the picture is a decline in testing. The U.S. was performing about 5.6 million screenings a week in late July, but in the seven days through Sept. 12 did only about 4.6 million, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project.
A decline in weekly deaths from a high of about 8,000 in early August to 5,100 last week is a promising, if early, sign. Over time, the U.S. has made strides in protecting elderly people and treating COVID-19. There’s also been a shift toward younger individuals falling ill, and they are more likely to have mild cases, said the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Michaud.