Brexit could lead to long lines of trucks
The U.K. government is warning of 7,000 truck-long lines in Kent in a “reasonable worst case” scenario caused by Brexit, a stark assessment of the potential chaos when Britain leaves the European Union’s single market and customs union at the end of the year.
In a letter to Britain’s border industry, Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove said the flow of freight between Dover and Calais — a vital U.K. trade artery — could be reduced as much as 80 percent, compared with normal levels. The government’s worst-case assessment is that as many as 70 percent of trucks traveling to the EU may not be ready for new border controls, according to the letter.
“The biggest potential cause of disruption are traders not being ready for controls implemented by EU member states on 1 January 2021,” Gove wrote in the letter dated Tuesday, seen by Bloomberg. “It is essential that traders act now and get ready for new formalities.”
Preparing for customs checks on trade with the EU is one of the biggest logistical challenges facing Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government. Failure risks major disruption to commerce with the U.K.’s largest trading partner when the Brexit transition period ends Dec. 31.
The government’s fear is that trucks will be stopped by EU officials for failing to have the correct post-Brexit paperwork, causing supply chain chaos and adding to the economic pain of the coronavirus.
Gove’s letter marks the first time a government minister has put their name to the predictions of significant upheaval at the U.K.-EU border next January. Last week, the Guardian newspaper reported on a briefing document from civil servants that forms the basis of Gove’s intervention, warning of long lines and disrupted freight flow.
The Cabinet Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Key to the government’s plan to minimize disruption is a new IT system — the Smart Freight Service — that would issue trucks with a permit indicating that they have the right paperwork to enter the EU. Trucks entering Kent without a permit would be fined $382. However, the government acknowledges that the system still will be in testing mode in January and that users risk enountering bugs.
The government also is building facilities to hold trucks with incorrect paperwork, in a bid to minimize traffic on the roads. It recently closed a coronavirus testing center at Ebbsfleet Station in Kent to make way for such a site.
In the letter, Gove said a winter spike in the coronavirus may suppress freight demand, which could limit the extent of disruption. However, absenteeism among port or border staff and social distancing measures could have an adverse effect.
The minister also said any restrictions on traffic into the EU from the U.K. would affect freight flowing in the other direction, too. The U.K. has tried to ease pressure on imports by deciding not to impose customs controls on goods coming from the EU until July.
“We assume both imports and exports could be disrupted to a similar extent,” Gove’s letter said. “Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs) that are caught up in congestion in the U.K. will be unable to travel to the EU to export products and/or collect another consignment.”