Old problems resurface from the start
O’Brien comes up short against his peers but is long on power due to McNair’s faith
Poor Bill O’Brien can’t win for losing.
I mean the guy makes a dumb fourth-down decision that backfires in a playoff game, and he gets rightly chastised for it. He then makes an analytically smart call that doesn’t work in a regular-season game and gets roasted for that as well.
It is as if few people believe in the Texans coach’s ability to get the job done. As if ?
O’Brien hasn’t lost much support by not having his team ready for the 2020 season. The Texans’ uninspiring efforts against Kansas City and Baltimore are just more evidence piled on top of a mountain of
mediocrity telling many Texans fans what they already believe: Under Bill O’Brien, the Texans are a bust or bust team.
It isn’t a matter of if the team will fail but when. And how embarrassing will it be?
I sat in the office of football and life philosopher Spike Dykes one day, and it seemed I was more upset at criticism he was taking from Texas Tech fans than he was.
That was the first time I heard his standard gem about a head coach losing 10 percent of the fan base’s support every year.
“I’ve been here 11 years, so you do the math,” he said.
It is a great line. And not inaccurate.
O’Brien is in his seventh season. Unlike most of their university brethren, NFL coaches start with only about 70 percent support.
Few in his corner
By that math, O’Brien entered this season with the support of 10 percent of Texans fans. That would have been the case were it not for his vulgar tirade directed at a fan during a game last year and the 24-0 lead the Texans blew against the Chiefs in the playoffs.
As it is, O’Brien’s approval rating is a negative number. He couldn’t win an election running unopposed.
Yet he isn’t on the hot seat.
O’Brien’s Texans have a lot of work to do but plenty of room for improvement. His offense has looked shaky and stale, his defense weak and confused.
The Texans are 27th in points scored, 28th in points allowed, and last in point differential.
“We’ve been in this position before, unfortunately,” O’Brien said. “Many times we’ve gotten out of this position, but it’s a different year. We just have to improve in every area. That’s pretty much all I can tell you.”
’Tis rare for a coach with so few advocates, with almost no one outside the organization extolling him, to be given extra power to make moves, as was the case for O’Brien this offseason. The general manager title he added is significant. Now that we have seen two games, the Texans’ entire offseason approach — from trading the best wide receiver in football to their practice regimen — can be called into question. Who will make the call? Imagine how differently the typical Monday head coach-general manager meeting would have gone the last two weeks had the Texans hired a competent GM instead of just handing the position to O’Brien.
Few coaches have the luxury of basically being their own boss. Cal McNair is the CEO, but no matter how many times he tries to downplay it, O’Brien is in charge. Everyone with the organization recognizes that.
Other coaches around the league are more impressed at O’Brien’s political power play than his play-calling.
While he will never be able to convince us that the second job doesn’t take away from his first, O’Brien’s biggest problem is he hasn’t proved to be much better than average as a head coach.
The saying that for players the NFL stands for Not For Long also applies to coaches. O’Brien is tied with Mike Zimmer as the seventh-longest tenured coach in the league. The six coaches who have been with their teams longer all have Super Bowl victories and multiple championship game appearances.
Zimmer, who like
O’Brien was hired in 2014, took the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game in 2017 and has better overall and playoff winning percentages than O’Brien.
Ten coaches have at least five seasons with a team. Seven of them have won Super Bowls, and one lost a Super Bowl in overtime. Another is Zimmer.
Then there is O’Brien, bragging about back-toback AFC South championships. He deserves credit for said achievement, but postseason failures trump those banners.
Six coaches who were hired after the Texans fired Gary Kubiak and hired O’Brien have advanced further in the playoffs than he has. And that includes two teams in the Texans’ division.
Every other team in that division has played in an AFC Championship Game during O’Brien’s tenure.
More power than wins
All of this data was on the table, and O’Brien earned a promotion this past offseason.
Most owners are impatient. McNair obviously isn’t. His approval of O’Brien’s work is unwavering.
McNair isn’t the lone believer, but if the rest of that group were seated in a single section at NRG Stadium, there would be room for social distancing. And dancing.
O’Brien can’t win fans for losing.