HOWTHEY MATCH UP
OFFENSE
The Twins and Astros ranked 15th (.743) and 16th (.720) in the majors in OPS, with Minnesota’s edge basically reflected in its 91 home runs to Houston’s 69. Twins designated hitter Nelson Cruz had another beastly season (.992 OPS with 16 homers), but Astros center fielder George Springer might be the hottest hitter on either team, having produced a 1.033 OPS in a September that included seven home runs in his last 15 games. Springer’s counterpart for the Twins, Byron Buxton, also had a solid September OPS (1.022) and finished the season with 13 homers and 27 RBIs in 39 games. Two caveats for the Twins: While Buxton (concussion symptoms from a Friday beaning) and Josh Donaldson (calf cramp) participated in Monday’s workout, their availability is likely but not ironclad. Eddie Rosario (42 RBIs) and Miguel Sano also hit 13 home runs for Minnesota, though Sano led the majors with 90 strikeouts as he fanned in 43.9 percent of his at-bats. Kyle Tucker broke out in a nice way for the Astros, driving in 42 runs while pairing nine homers with eight steals, and Michael Brantley hit a reliable .300. But everyone in the Astros infield — Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel — underachieved dramatically. One plus for Houston: Its 440 strikeouts were the fewest in baseball. It just needs more balls put in play to fall for hits.
EDGE: EVEN
DEFENSE
The Astros boasted the majors’ top fielding percentage at .991 and got a stellar year from Correa, who made only one error in 212 chances to set a team record in fielding among shortstops (.995), topping Adam Everett’s .990 in 2006. But the Twins were right behind them at .990, and their total zone rating of 23 ranked fourth in the majors, with the Astros 10th with a rating of 9. Buxton is an elite center fielder, another reason the Twins are hopeful he’ll be ready to play.
EDGE: EVEN
STARTING PITCHING
The importance of Game 1 is magnified in a best-of-three series, and Minnesota’s Kenta Maeda has a clear edge over Zack Greinke. Maeda, who was 6-1with a 2.70 ERA, had the majors’ best WHIP at 0.75 and didn’t allow more than three runs in any of his 11 starts. He has 21 games’ worth of postseason experience with a Dodgers, though this will be his first playoff start since 2016. Greinke’s diverse arsenal proves righthanders also can be crafty, but he lost his final three decisions, allowing at least seven hits in each, to finish 3-3 with 4.03 ERA. The Astros have yet to announce a Game 2 starter, likely because manager Dusty Baker is reserving the right to call on Framber Valdez, who has a 6:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and was probably his team’s most valuable pitcher in 2020, or Jose Urquidy out of the bullpen in Game 1. Jose Berrios (5-4, 4.00 ERA, 68 strikeouts in 63 innings) and Michael Pineda (2-0, 3.38 after being reinstated from a drug suspension) are next in line for the Twins. Lance McCullers Jr., who would pitch Game 3 for the Astros, hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last 17-plus innings, but he was dreadful on the road this year, going 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA.
EDGE: TWINS
RELIEF PITCHING
The Astros’ bullpen, which has relied heavily on rookies this season, gets a boost with another one, Cristian Javier, transferring from the rotation. Valdez or Urquidy — whoever doesn’t start Game 2 — also affords some quality length. Ryan Pressly has had his ups and downs since becoming the closer, but he finished relatively strong, converting 11 of his last 13 save chances over his last 18 appearances while pitching to a 2.60 ERA and posting a 25:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in that span. Sergio Romo (five of six save conversions) assumed Minnesota’s closer role after Taylor Rogers (nine of 11 save conversions, four losses) encountered a lengthy bout of ineffectiveness. Both finished with 4.05 ERAs. The Twins did have an array of arms provide solid middle relief, including Houston native Tyler Duffey (0.79 WHIP, 1.88 ERA in 24 innings), Matt Wisler (1.07 ERA, 35 K’s in 25 1⁄ innings), Caleb Thielbar (2.25 ERA), Jorge Alcala 3 (2.63) and Tyler Clippard (2.77). EDGE: TWINS
OVERVIEW
While one franchise captured an AL pennant a year ago and the other has lost its last 16 postseason games, nothing about 2020 tilts the Astros’ way. At 36-24, the Twins were seven games better than the 29-31 Astros against a much tougher schedule. Six of Minnesota’s nine opponents are in the playoffs; only three of Houston’s nine made it. The Twins won five of their last seven games to finish a 16-8 September that gave them their second consecutive AL Central title. The Astros limped into the postseason, dropping their final three games and scoring three or fewer runs in 13 of their last 20. There’s been nothing to suggest they can simply flip a switch and resolve their malaise at the plate. Oh, and the Twins went 24-7 at Target Field; the Astros were 9-23 away from Minute Maid Park. PREDICTION: Twins in two games.