SIX KEY TEXAS REGIONS TO WATCH ON ELECTION DAY
If Texas is going to turn blue or remain red, it is going to come down largely to voters in these six key places.
■ Harris County: No place in Texas has shifted more to Democrats in eight years than the state’s largest county. In 2012, Barack Obama carried the county by just 971 votes. In 2016, that margin grewto 162,000 for Hillary Clinton. And in 2018, it grew again, this time to just over 200,000 votes for Beto O’Rourke over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, even though itwas Cruz’s home county.
■ Dallas suburbs: It’s no secret that suburban voters are a key target for both presidential campaigns. But Denton and Collin counties just north of FortWorth and Dallas, which have been solidly Republican for decades, have become unexpected battleground counties. In 2016, Republicans easily won every single race on the ballot in Collin County, which Trump carried by 15 percentage points. Trump carried Denton County by 20 percentage points. But just two years later, O’Rourke came within 6 points of winning Collin and within 8 points in Denton. Those counties have added a combined 200,000 more voters since 2016.
■ The border: Democrats knowthe numbers well. While they have consistently carried the Texas border from Brownsville to Laredo, those have also been some of the counties with the lowest voter turnout in general elections. In 2016, the state had nearly 60 percent turnout for the presidential election. But in big border counties such as Cameron and Webb, just 47 percent turned out. The Democrats have improved their ground gamein the region, and even sent Kamala Harris to the border just four days before Election Day. If turnout in these counties looks more like it does in the rest of the state, they could swing the entire election to Biden.
■ The Panhandle: Republicans are sure towin the Texas Panhandle and the South Plains through Lubbock. But those regions are losing voters or growing slower than the rest of the electorate, while other parts of the state are gaining. Cruz used strong turnout in the Panhandle to hold onto his Senate seat, but population trends show the problems Republicans face. In 15 of the 27 counties that make up the Texas Panhandle, the number of registered voters actually declined since then.
■ El Paso: El Paso is voting in numbers that are unheard of in a presidential race. El Paso has seen a 26-percent increase in voter turnout compared to 2016 already. And in 2018, with native son O’Rourke on the ballot, El Paso sawa 155 percent increase in total votes compared to four years earlier. If that same increase happens compared to 2016, it would mean up to 50,000 more votes for the Democrats.
■ Central Texas: In four years, Texas has added almost 2million new voters— a statewide increase of nearly 12 percent. But in Central Texas, three big counties have seen those numbers jump over 24 percent. Hays, Comal and Williamson counties have all surged faster than other parts of the state, making them a true wild card heading into the Nov. 3 election. Hays and Williamson broke for O’Rourke in 2018— the first time those counties have gone Democratic since Ann Richards was the Texas governor in the early 1990s.