Virus’ ‘unrelenting’ spread raises alarm
1 in 6 Texans, or 4.75M, estimated to be infected already
If you thought things were bad when Texas topped 1 million COVID-19 cases, guess what?
Researchers estimate at least four times as many people have actually caught the virus.
An estimated 1 out of every 6 Texans — roughly 4.75 million people — has contracted COVID-19, according to a recent statistical analysis by the University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. The analysis estimates that the virus is spreading rapidly and so far has infected more than 16 percent of people in Texas, far more than the state’s official tally.
“The speed at which things can get out of hand
is a lot quicker than people expected,” said Spencer Fox, associate director of the consortium.
The consortium’s statistical modeling uses cellphone data to measure mobility and state hospitalization levels to determine where the virus is spreading and how many people have been infected. It is not a perfect predictor of the virus’ spread, Fox cautioned, but it dovetails with state estimates.
The researchers’ approximation of 4.75 million cases is “generally in the ballpark” of what state health officials believe is the true number of infections, said Chris Van Deusen, a spokesman for the Texas Department of State Health Services, which publishes the state’s official COVID-19 infection figures.
“It varies by condition, but we know and expect that all kinds of diseases are underreported,” Van Deusen said in an email.
In the Houston region, the UT consortium’s projections have worsened recently because of the growing number of new infections and hospitalizations. There’s a 76 percent chance the pandemic is growing here, according to the latest modeling, up from 47 percent on Friday. More than 1 million people — about 16 percent of Houston-area residents — have been infected with COVID-19, the UT researchers estimated.
About 24.1 million people, more than 80 percent of the state’s population, live in areas where the virus’ spread is more
likely to increase, according to the consortium’s public online dashboard.
This includes other major urban regions such as Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and Austin.
The consortium estimated in October that therewas at least an 80 percent chance the pandemic was growing in El Paso. That proved to be true. Cases and hospitalizations rose in that border city throughout late October and early November, overwhelming the local health care system. The model estimates that 1 in every 3 El Paso residents has contracted the virus since the start of the pandemic.
The modeling also shows the potential danger of letting the virus run rampant to establish herd immunity — a strategy that some critics of lockdowns say is worth trying.
In order for herd immunity to work before a vaccine is ready, roughly 60 percent of the state population would have to be infected, or more than 17 million people, Fox said. Given the demand on hospitals in Texas now, with an estimated 16 percent of the population infected or recovered, the health care system would be overwhelmed if the coronavirus was allowed to spread unchecked.
“You can just think aboutwhat that would look like,” he said.
Fox said there are several reasons for the gap between the state’s official infection numbers and researchers’ estimates. The official tally relies exclusively on test results. But up to half the people infected with COVID-19 don’t exhibit symptoms and might not even know they’re sick. Others who do display symptoms might not bother getting a test at all and simply stay home and quarantine, he said.
Roughly 10 million COVID-19 tests have been administered in Texas, according to state data. That works out to about onethird of the state’s population.
State and local officials also are conducting antibody testing to measure how many people have been exposed to the disease. Dr. Umair Shah, executive director of Harris County Public Health, said the results of those tests and surveys could be a rich source of information on the true prevalence of the virus. He urged continued safety precautions, warning that it is still “a critical period for ourcommunity and our country.”
But researchers are seeing indications of pandemic fatigue. Using anonymized cellphone data, the COVID-19 consortium noted an uptick in people visiting restaurants and bars before cases began increasing in Texas in early summer and again in September.
In an interview with ABC13 last week, Gov. Greg Abbott said Texans needed to return to the practices they adopted during the peak in the summer that helped reduce infections.
“Itwas the response by Texans at that time that did lead to the decline we were able to achieve in COVID cases,” he said.
Modeling cannot perfectly predict the future, Fox said. Just because it shows that the virus’ spread is likely to increase somewhere doesn’t mean that will actually occur if people change their habits and take steps to avoid getting sick.
“Looking at these projections, some of them seem grim. But the community can change the projections,” Fox said. “Because communities can change.”