Despite promise of vaccines, more airlines could fail
The trio of coronavirus vaccines racing toward approval may reach the masses too late to prevent another round of airline failures.
With last week’s insolvency filing at Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA, some 42 airlines worldwide have failed or entered bankruptcy this year, research from consultant IBA Group shows. The tally may surpass 70 through March, as rising cases weigh on revenue and carriers struggle to secure fresh funding.
“The fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year could be equally terrible,” IBA’s Stuart Hatcher said in an interview. “Airlines will be trying everything to get through to Easter, when higher demand should coincide with the rollout of the vaccine, but there comes a point when the money runs out.”
While a late-summer rebound in flights has limited airline failures in the past few months, a newwave of COVID-19 lockdowns combined with the usual winter slump in traffic will push more toward the brink, Hatcher said.
Alexandre de Juniac, director general of the International Air Transport Association, warned separately Monday that airlines can’t wait for the vaccine rollout, telling a media briefing that the effect of the pandemic has been “beyond belief” and repeating pleas for governments to universally adopt preflight testing to al-low mass travel to safely resume.
James Wiltshire, the IATA’s assistant government affairs director, said vaccines won’t be widely available to the general public for travel purposes until at least the second half of next year, potentially much later in parts of the world. “Airlines simply don’t have the cash reserves to last that long,” he said.
The latest studies point to only 50 instances of people being infected with the coronavirus during a flight, with many of those cases arising from a handful of “super spreader” events in which mask wearing wasn’t properly observed, Dr. David Powell, the IATA’s medical adviser, said in the briefing.
Carriers unable to wring further aid from cash-strapped governments will be most vulnerable to collapse, IBA’s Hatcher said.
Norwegian Air last week filed for creditor protection in Ireland, after Norway turned down a second bailout on top of a $333 million state loan granted in May.
What’s not clear is how much advances toward vaccines will affect forward airline bookings and the ability of carriers to raise cash from government or private sources, Hatcher said.
“There seems to be light at the end of the tunnel, so there might be more confidence about stepping in,” he said. “Then again, final approvals for vaccines are still needed, distribution will take many months and we’re not going to see long-haul markets in particular rebound for a long time.”
IBA says the figures on filings underplay the extent of restructuring action, especially in Asia, where there’s a higher proportion of national airlines such as Pakistan International Airlines and Air India undergoing state turnarounds.
Thai Airways International is reorganizing under a court-approved plan, while Asiana Airlines Inc. has been rescued through a takeover by larger rival Korean Air Lines Co. There’s no visibility into Chinese revamps, Hatcher said.
Some large carriers including India’s SpiceJet Ltd., which has deferred dues to vendors and statutory authorities, and Malaysia Airlines, which is seeking to negotiate a restructuring with creditors and leasing companies, haven’t filed but are vulnerable, he said.
Long-haul discount carrier AirAsia X has submitted a revised debt restructuring plan that will be put to a vote in the first quarter.
Americas and Europe
Insolvency actions have been more common in Latin America, reflecting a relative unavailability of state funding and ready access to U.S. Chapter 11 proceedings, from which major operators such as Latam Airlines Group SA, Avianca Holdings SA and Grupo Aeromexico SAB should emerge, according to Hatcher.
Some $50 billion of loans and worker payments through the coronavirus relief bill helped head off bankruptcies in the U.S., together with a residual flow of revenue from domestic flights, he said.
In Europe, there’s been a huge imbalance in funding between the billions of euros of state aid granted to Air France-KLM and Deutsche Lufthansa AG and the far smaller amounts tapped by discounters including Ryanair Holdings PLC, Hatcher said. Some carriers including EasyJet PLC seeking to tap further funding should be successful, he said.