Afghan violence may delay U.S. withdrawal

KABUL, Afghanistan — Both the Afghan government and its Taliban foes appear to be gearing up for a violent spring amid uncertainty over whether the Biden administration will meet a May 1 deadline for the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Afghanistan.

On Thursday, the Pentagon raised questions about whether the pullout — agreed to in a February 2020 U.S.-Taliban peace deal — would go ahead on schedule as the Biden administration reviews the agreement made by its predecessor. That statement followed bellicose remarks by Taliban and Afghan government officials, amplified by waves of violence across the country.

“Without them meeting their commitments to renounce terrorism and to stop the violent attacks against the Afghan National Security Forces, it’s very hard to see a specific way forward for the negotiated settlement,” Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said at a news briefing. “But we’re still committed to that.”

Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesperson, said Friday on social media that Kirby’s assertions were “unfounded.”

The agreement between the Taliban and the U.S. government started the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan in exchange for counterterrorism pledges from the Taliban and a promise to push the Afghan government to release 5,000 prisoners. The move amounted to the strongest attempt yet by the United States to extricate itself from its longest war, potentially paving the way for the Taliban’s future inclusion in the Afghan government.

But the talks excluded the Afghan government and left it feeling sidelined and unheard.

There are currently 2,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, down from 12,000 this time last year. And while the Afghan government is in favor of the withdrawal of Western forces, it wants a slower timetable than the one agreed to with the Taliban.

With the peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, at a standstill, Washington’s review will examine the Taliban’s commitments to severing ties with terrorist groups and reducing violence as agreed.

U.S. officials have long insisted that the agreement was “conditions-based,” and if the Taliban does not meet those terms, it would extend the presence of U.S. forces in the country.

But recent overtures from President Joe Biden’s White House have sent a more reassuring message to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and other government officials, raising their hopes that they will no longer be sidelined and that the Americans will not leave anytime soon.

Afghan National Security Adviser Hamdullah Mohib unleashed a harsh diatribe against the Taliban last week while speaking to a group of Afghan commandos at an air base outside Kabul.

“They have proved that they don’t have any desire for peace and that they are a terrorist group,” said Mohib. His latest remarks came on the heels of a phone call with his new U.S. counterpart, Jake Sullivan.

On Thursday, the new secretary of state, Antony Blinken, talked with Ghani and expressed “the U.S. desire for all Afghan leaders to support this historic opportunity for peace while preserving the progress made over the last 20 years.”

Many Afghan officials say they believe that the Taliban have only a single interest: to seize power by force. And all sides in the conflict agree that missing the May troop withdrawal deadline would quickly change whatever equilibrium has been established on the country’s battlefields and could risk setting off a concerted Taliban effort to enter cities.