Watson trade would cost teams a lot
If Texans decide to deal disgruntled quarterback, any talks would have to start with the Jets, who have the draft’s second overall pick
If a team wants Deshaun Watson, the trade has got to hurt, and it will be a lot more painful than what the Rams surrendered to acquire Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford.
The Texans are adamant they won’t deal Watson, but they have plenty of time to change their mind before the draft. And if they do, that Rams-Lions trade Saturday night will look like chicken feed compared to what general manager Nick Caserio will ask for a great quarterback who’s 25, coming off the best season of his fouryear career and under contract through 2025.
Let me point out a couple of things before we dive into the ramifications of the Rams-Lions trade and how it will have no effect on a potential package for Watson.
Trades can’t be official until March 17, the start of the new league year when free agency begins and teams must be under the 2021 salary cap that’s yet to be determined.
The Rams-Lions trade was about Los Angeles getting rid of the remainder of quarterback
Jared Goff ’s contract — $106.6 million over four years.
The Rams’ strategy — the 26-year-old Goff ’s salary dump, two first-round draft choices and a third-round pick for Stafford — brings back memories of the Texans’ trade with Cleveland for quarterback Brock Osweiler in March 2017.
Former general manager Rick Smith sent Osweiler, a secondround pick and a sixth-round selection to the Browns for a fourth-round pick. Smith got rid of Osweiler’s $16 million guaranteed salary and cleared $10 million in cap space.
The Rams fell out of love with Goff after their playoff exit this season. They’re paying a steep price to get rid of him and to acquire Stafford, who turns 33 in February and has two years left on his contract worth $43 million.
The Rams are sending the Lions a third-round draft choice this year and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023.
There’s an inherent problem in the trade for the Lions and new coach Dan Campbell. The Rams have been a consistent winner since Sean McVay became their coach in 2017. He has a 46-24 record, including 3-3 in the playoffs, and a Super Bowl appearance.
With Stafford at quarterback, the Rams should continue to win, and those No. 1 picks the Lions acquired could be in the bottom part of the first round. That will be seven consecutive drafts in which the Rams don’t have a first-round choice.
Fast forward to Watson. At new coach David Culley’s introductory Zoom conference call Friday, he said several times that Watson is the Texans’ quarterback. Caserio said they have “zero interest” in trading Watson. And that’s the way they will continue to feel unless they’re convinced otherwise.
Watson responded by scrubbing any mention of Texans from his social media platforms, the next step in his exit strategy.
Let’s imagine Caserio, Culley and chairman and CEO Cal McNair eventually agree there’s absolutely no way Watson is going to back down from his trade demand. Do they let him sit, which would cost him millions, or do they open trade discussions in April and make the best possible deal?
Let’s be clear: The Texans do not want to trade Watson. Most fans don’t want Watson traded. Obviously, the Texans are a much better team with than without him. At some point, though, the stalemate will become counterproductive.
If the Texans believe Watson will miss the preseason and possibly the regular season, they’ll have to acquire another quarterback. They need one anyway, because Watson and Josh McCown are the only ones they have under contract.
Any trade discussion must start with the Jets, who have the second overall pick behind the Jaguars. Jacksonville is going to draft Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
A trade with the Jets would guarantee the Texans the quarterback they believe is secondbest behind Lawrence.
There are some ramifications to consider in a possible trade with the Jets.
First, Watson would have to agree to the deal because he has a no-trade clause. There are reports the Jets are the first team on his list. He would be part of new coach Robert Saleh’s first team. Saleh was reportedly one of the coaches Watson wanted the Texans to interview. Saleh didn’t make Caserio’s list of coaches he interviewed.
With Watson starring for the Jets, they could steal some of the Giants’ thunder. Playing for the Jets would open up even more endorsement opportunities that could bring Watson millions more than he already earns.
New York would love Watson. He’d be the Jets’ most popular quarterback since Joe Namath.
Now, the Jets would have to pay dearly for that luxury. They could give up first- and secondround picks the next two years and two of their best defensive starters to help the Texans rebuild on that side of the ball.
The Texans could also ask for quarterback Sam Darnold to be included in the deal. He could start until the rookie is ready to take over.
Right away, Caserio should emphasize the Texans aren’t interested in the first-round picks the Jets acquired from Seattle for safety Jamal Adams. It’s the Jets’ picks or bust.
The Jets can afford to surrender their first-round selections because they’ll still have those obtained from the Seahawks.
Some may call that trade scenario with the Jets preposterous for one player, no matter how great he is, but a team will have to give to get. A trade partner will have to open a vein and bleed for Watson, an exceptional quarterback, a team leader and a pillar of the community who could start for another 10 to 15 years.
There are reports around the country about quarterbackneedy teams trying to figure out ways to acquire Watson. Caserio would be making a mistake taking on a quarterback a team is trying to dump without a guarantee of getting a high pick to develop a rookie at that position.
The Dolphins have the third overall pick — courtesy of the Laremy Tunsil-Kenny Stills trade with the Texans — but would guarantee Caserio the third-best quarterback. The Jets would surely take the one they deemed second behind Lawrence.
What Caserio should do is try to get the Jets and Dolphins, AFC East rivals, in a bidding war for Watson. He would give Miami a better chance of beating Buffalo and quarterback Josh Allen and unseating the Bills as division champions. That might make the Jets be more agreeable to digging deeper to get Watson.
Some around the NFL are trying to connect the dots between Jimmy Garoppolo and Caserio, who were together with the Patriots before Bill Belichick shipped the quarterback to San Francisco. With all due respect to Jimmy G, he’s certainly no Watson. Neither are the other quarterbacks being bandied about in trade possibilities.
We’re a long way away from the Texans discussing a Watson trade. It says here McNair, Caserio and Culley have to make a decision about the middle of April. Do they dig in, force Watson’s hand and wait to see what comes from the wreckage or do the wise thing and call Jets general manager Joe Douglas and play let’s make a deal?