Renewables likely to be top power by 2030
Renewable energy such as wind and solar power is expected to surpass natural gas as the predominant source of U.S. electricity generation by 2030, according to a new report from the Energy Information Administration.
The nation’s fastest-growing electricity source, renewable power is expected to double its share of U.S. power generation to 42 percent by 2050 from 21 percent last year. While consumption of natural gas will grow with increasing population and electricity demand, the share of natural gas in the nation’s electricity mix is expected to remain flat at about one-third over the same time period, the EIA said in its 2021 energy outlook published Monday.
“Policies at the state and federal levels have encouraged significant investment in renewable resources for electricity generation,” the EIA said. “New technologies have driven down the cost to install wind and solar generation, further increasing their competitiveness in the electricity market even as policy effects moderate over time.”
The EIA’s energy outlook comes as deep-pocketed Big Oil companies are developing wind and so
lar projects to prepare for what they expect will be a low-carbon future amid growing concerns about climate change. British oil major BP and French oil major Total have moved aggressively into the global renewable space over the past year. For example, the two companies will pay a total of $1.2 billion after recently outbidding utility companies to develop major British offshore wind farms. BP agreed to pay 80 percent more than the average bid of its competitors to win the auction.
In Texas, Total plans to build nine solar projects in the next few years. Meanwhile, Lightsource BP, a global solar company in which the oil major owns a 50 percent stake, is building two solar projects in North Texas. BP has said it plans to boost yearly investments in wind and solar projects to about $5 billion.
Renewable projects, particularly wind and solar, are expected to account for almost 60 percent of the estimated 1,000 gigawatts of new power capacity projected to be added nationally over the next three decades. Natural gas power plants account for the remaining 40 percent of the new electricity capacity. Many coal and nuclear power plants, which are less profitable, are expected to be retired over the coming decades, the EIA said.
The EIA expects much of the increased demand for electricity nationally will come from the rise of electric vehicles. Electricity demand from transportation, however, remains less than 3 percent of the power demand nationwide.
“Both vehicle sales and (use) would need to increase substantially for EVs to raise electric power demand growth rates by more than a fraction of a percentage point per year,” the EIA said.