Houston Chronicle

Retail sales trade group sees strong growth for this year

- By Anne D’Innocenzio

NEW YORK — The nation’s largest retail trade group is forecastin­g strong retail sales growth this year that could surpass last year’s pace as more individual­s get vaccinated and the economy reopens.

The National Retail Federation said Wednesday it anticipate­s that retail sales will grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent to more than $4.33 trillion this year.

Online sales, which are included in the total, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent this year.

Early results show that retail sales last year increased 6.7 percent compared with the previous year to $4.06 trillion, nearly double the trade group’s forecast of at least 3.5 percent growth. That figure had not accounted for the global pandemic. This figure compares with 3.9 percent growth in 2019. The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurant­s.

The group said that it could be the best performanc­e since 2004 when retail sales rose 6.3 percent.

“Despite the continuing health and economic challenges COVID-19 presents, we are very optimistic that healthy consumer fundamenta­ls, pent-up demand and widespread distributi­on of the vaccine will generate increased economic growth, retail sales and consumer spending,” said trade group CEO and President Matthew Shay in a statement.

Still, not everyone is participat­ing in strong sales gains. Walmart and other big box stores as well as online behemoth Amazon have benefited from shoppers’ accelerate­d shift online and their embrace of one-stop shopping to limit exposure to the virus. Home improvemen­t stores have also done well as shoppers plow money into their homes.

But clothing stores, which were already struggling before the pandemic, face big challenges as they were forced to temporaril­y close last spring to reduce the spread of the virus. That only increased the dominance of discounter­s, which were allowed to stay open.

Macy’s and others reopened last May and have had a slow recovery. But Macy’s offered earlier this week annual forecasts that beat Wall Street forecasts and says it looks to 2021 as a year to recover and rebuild.

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