CORONAVIRUS
CDC warns Texas to expect uptick in cases as mask order lifts.
WASHINGTON — The Centers for Disease Control is increasing pressure on Republican leaders in states like Texas that have eased COVID restrictions, publishing a study Friday showing evidence that the measures — such as the mask requirement that Gov. Greg Abbott rescinded this week — clearly decrease COVID-19 cases and deaths, while opening up restaurants causes them to spike.
“We have seen this movie before: When prevention measures like mask mandates are rolled back, cases go up,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said. “I know the idea of relaxing mask wearing and getting back to everyday activities is appealing, but we’re not there yet.”
It was the latest example of blowback Abbott has received from the Biden administration over his decision to lift the mask requirement and open businesses “100 percent” — a move President Joe Biden earlier this week panned as “Neanderthal thinking.”
Republicans, however, have cheered Abbott, calling his decision “common sense” as cases and hospitalizations decline and noting that Abbott has still urged Texans to mask up, even if he is no longer mandating it.
Appearing Thursday on CNBC, Abbott responded to Biden’s criticism, saying that dropping the mask mandate is not a big change because it had not been enforced in the first place.
“Maybe to people in New York it seems like this is a big difference,” Abbott said. “Before now, there actually has not been any enforcement of the mask require
ment. That made it a mask suggestion, which we continue to make wearing a mask a suggestion. And we urge all Texans to wear a mask when they are out.”
On Friday, Walensky continued to sound the alarm. She said that for more than a week, COVID-19 cases and deaths have started to plateau — just as some states are easing restrictions that helped drive those cases down.
White House officials said Friday the trend is concerning, especially as progress has been made on vaccinations. Nearly 55 percent of people 65 and older have received at least one vaccine dose, up from just 8 percent six weeks ago, senior White House COVID-19 adviser Andy Slavitt said.
‘Texas has the tools’
More than 3.5 million Texans have received at least one dose of the vaccine, and nearly 2 million have been fully vaccinated, out of a population of 29 million. Still, the state ranks among the lowest for the percentage of people vaccinated, at 13 percent.
“It’s better to spike the football once you’re safely in the end zone, not once you’ve made a couple of completions,” Slavitt said.
Renae Eze, a spokeswoman for Abbott, said in a statement that “the governor was clear in telling Texans that COVID hasn’t ended, and that all Texans should follow medical advice and safe practices to continue containing COVID, like wearing a mask.
“The fact is, Texas now has the tools and knowledge to combat COVID while also allowing Texans and small businesses to make their own decisions,” Eze said. “It is clear from the recoveries, the vaccinations, the reduced hospitalizations, and the safe practices that Texans are using, that state mandates are no longer needed.”
The CDC’s new report issued Friday says COVID-19 cases and death rates decreased within 20 days of the implementation of state mask mandates. But that progress was quickly reversed with the opening of restaurants. COVID-19 cases rose between 41 and 100 days after states allowed dining in restaurants and daily death rates rose between 61 and 100 days after.
“Policies that require universal mask use and restrict any on-premises restaurant dining are important components of a comprehensive strategy to reduce exposure to and transmission of SARSCoV-2,” the study said. “Such efforts are increasingly important given the emergence of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants in the United States.”
CDC’s study data
The study analyzed COVID-19 data in 39 states and D.C. that put mask mandates in place beginning in April.
Daily COVID-19 cases dropped by a half a percentage point within the first 20 days of those mandates. That figure jumped to 1.1 percentage points in the next 20 days and continued to increase to 1.8 percentage points after 80 days. The rate of virus deaths, meanwhile, decreased by 0.7 percentage points in the first 20 days, by 1 percentage point after 20 days and by 1.9 points after 80 days. The CDC study said the declines were statistically significant.
The CDC also studied what happened after 49 states and D.C. that prohibited dining at restaurants in March and April had eased those restrictions by midJune.
The results were not immediate, but the CDC found COVID-19 cases rose by 0.9 percentage points after 40 days, and by more than 1 percentage point after 60 days. Death growth rates, meanwhile, rose 2.2 percentage points after 60 days and 3 points after 80 days.
The study said the delay in increases may be due to restaurants delaying reopening their dining rooms and patios, even after they were allowed to do so. Patrons may also have been more cautious when restaurants first reopened but became more comfortable eating out as time went on.
The study said restaurants are not solely to blame for the increases.
“COVID-19 case and death growth rates might also have increased because of persons engaging in close contact activities other than or in addition to on-premises restaurant dining in response to perceived reduced risk,” it said.
The findings come as restaurant and business owners in Texas weigh whether to require masks or limit capacity, even though they are no longer required to do either. Several — including Houston’s Galleria mall — have said they will continue to require masks.
“Nothing changes. We’re not even going to consider changing our mask policy until everyone on our team is eligible for the vaccine,” Houston’s Feges BBQ pitmaster Patrick Feges and his wife, chef Erin Smith, wrote on Facebook. “No mask no bbq” warns an Instagram post from Eddie O’s BBQ pitmaster Eddie Ortiz.